Saratoga Investment Corp Stock Price Prediction
| SAR Stock | USD 23.70 0.10 0.42% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
42
Oversold | Overbought |
Saratoga Investment Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Saratoga Investment shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Saratoga Investment's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Saratoga Investment and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Saratoga Investment's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Saratoga Investment Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Saratoga Investment's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 7.192 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.29 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.63 | Wall Street Target Price 26.04 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.03 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Saratoga Investment based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Saratoga stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Saratoga Investment over a specific investment horizon. Using Saratoga Investment hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Saratoga Investment Corp from the perspective of Saratoga Investment response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Saratoga Investment using Saratoga Investment's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Saratoga using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Saratoga Investment's stock price.
Saratoga Investment Implied Volatility | 30.49 |
Saratoga Investment's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Saratoga Investment Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Saratoga Investment's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Saratoga Investment stock will not fluctuate a lot when Saratoga Investment's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Saratoga Investment. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Saratoga Investment to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Saratoga because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Saratoga Investment after-hype prediction price | USD 23.58 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Saratoga |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Saratoga Investment's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Saratoga Investment After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Saratoga Investment at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Saratoga Investment or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Saratoga Investment, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Saratoga Investment Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Saratoga Investment's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Saratoga Investment's historical news coverage. Saratoga Investment's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.77 and 24.39, respectively. We have considered Saratoga Investment's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Saratoga Investment is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Saratoga Investment Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Saratoga Investment Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Saratoga Investment is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Saratoga Investment backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Saratoga Investment, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 0.82 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 11 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
23.70 | 23.58 | 0.08 |
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Saratoga Investment Hype Timeline
On the 2nd of May Saratoga Investment Corp is traded for 23.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Saratoga is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 23.58. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Saratoga Investment is about 1025.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.69. About 16.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.88. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Saratoga Investment Corp last dividend was issued on the 12th of March 2024. The entity had 1:10 split on the 13th of August 2010. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Saratoga Investment Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Saratoga Investment Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Saratoga Investment's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Saratoga Investment's future price movements. Getting to know how Saratoga Investment's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Saratoga Investment may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FMN | Federated Premier Municipal | (0.06) | 2 per month | 0.37 | (0.04) | 0.73 | (0.63) | 2.82 | |
| MYD | Blackrock Muniyield | (0.19) | 4 per month | 0.50 | (0.07) | 1.01 | (0.91) | 3.15 | |
| NXG | NXG NextGen Infrastructure | 0.04 | 8 per month | 1.07 | 0.18 | 1.73 | (1.13) | 8.23 | |
| BCAT | BlackRock Capital Allocation | (0.13) | 8 per month | 0.93 | (0.01) | 1.31 | (1.26) | 5.03 | |
| BBUC | Brookfield Business Corp | (0.06) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.32 | (3.14) | 9.75 |
Saratoga Investment Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Saratoga price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Saratoga using various technical indicators. When you analyze Saratoga charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Saratoga Investment Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Saratoga Investment stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Saratoga Investment Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Saratoga Investment based on analysis of Saratoga Investment hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Saratoga Investment's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Saratoga Investment's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0577 | 0.0688 | 0.0796 | 0.11 | Price To Sales Ratio | 5.47 | 3.33 | 3.36 | 3.94 |
Story Coverage note for Saratoga Investment
The number of cover stories for Saratoga Investment depends on current market conditions and Saratoga Investment's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Saratoga Investment is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Saratoga Investment's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Saratoga Investment Short Properties
Saratoga Investment's future price predictability will typically decrease when Saratoga Investment's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Saratoga Investment Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Saratoga Investment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Saratoga Investment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 65.7 B |
Check out Saratoga Investment Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Saratoga Investment Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Saratoga Investment's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Complementary Tools for Saratoga Stock analysis
When running Saratoga Investment's price analysis, check to measure Saratoga Investment's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Saratoga Investment is operating at the current time. Most of Saratoga Investment's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Saratoga Investment's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Saratoga Investment's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Saratoga Investment to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Saratoga Investment's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Saratoga Investment. If investors know Saratoga will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Saratoga Investment listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 7.192 | Dividend Share 2.82 | Earnings Share 1.89 | Revenue Per Share 11.342 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.384 |
The market value of Saratoga Investment Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Saratoga that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Saratoga Investment's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Saratoga Investment's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Saratoga Investment's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Saratoga Investment's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Saratoga Investment's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Saratoga Investment is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Saratoga Investment's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.