Old Dominion Freight Stock Price Prediction
| ODFL Stock | USD 181.94 0.08 0.04% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
30
Oversold | Overbought |
Old Dominion Freight stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Old Dominion shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Old Dominion's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Old Dominion and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Old Dominion's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Old Dominion Freight, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Old Dominion's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.039 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.63 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.06 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.19 | Wall Street Target Price 209.07 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Old Dominion based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Old stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Old Dominion over a specific investment horizon. Using Old Dominion hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Old Dominion Freight from the perspective of Old Dominion response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Old Dominion using Old Dominion's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Old using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Old Dominion's stock price.
Old Dominion Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Old Dominion's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Old. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Old Dominion stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Old Dominion may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Old Dominion and may potentially protect profits, hedge Old Dominion with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 203.7638 | Short Percent 0.0388 | Short Ratio 3.22 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.1 M | 50 Day MA 207.3409 |
Old Dominion Freight Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Old Dominion's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Old. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Old can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Old Dominion Freight. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Old Dominion's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Old Dominion.
Old Dominion Implied Volatility | 145.89 |
Old Dominion's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Old Dominion Freight stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Old Dominion's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Old Dominion stock will not fluctuate a lot when Old Dominion's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Old Dominion. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Old Dominion to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Old because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Old Dominion after-hype prediction price | USD 181.94 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Old contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Old Dominion Freight will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 9.12% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Old Dominion trading at USD 181.94, that is roughly USD 16.59 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Old Dominion's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Old Dominion Freight options at the current volatility level of 145.89%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Old |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Old Dominion's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Old Dominion After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Old Dominion at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Old Dominion or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Old Dominion, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Old Dominion Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Old Dominion's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Old Dominion's historical news coverage. Old Dominion's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 179.54 and 184.34, respectively. We have considered Old Dominion's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Old Dominion is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Old Dominion Freight is based on 3 months time horizon.
Old Dominion Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Old Dominion is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Old Dominion backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Old Dominion, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 2.42 | 0.46 | 0.42 | 11 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
181.94 | 181.94 | 0.00 |
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Old Dominion Hype Timeline
Old Dominion Freight is now traded for 181.94. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.46, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.42. Old is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 131.52%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.25%. %. The volatility of related hype on Old Dominion is about 143.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 181.52. About 20.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.84. Old Dominion Freight recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.68. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of March 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 28th of March 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Old Dominion Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Old Dominion Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Old Dominion's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Old Dominion's future price movements. Getting to know how Old Dominion's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Old Dominion may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ARCB | ArcBest Corp | (13.91) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.26 | (6.20) | 20.29 | |
| MRTN | Marten Transport | (0.22) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.02 | (2.64) | 6.35 | |
| WERN | Werner Enterprises | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.16 | (2.65) | 7.45 | |
| KNX | Knight Transportation | (0.71) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 2.24 | (2.81) | 7.08 | |
| RXO | RXO Inc | (0.22) | 8 per month | 2.51 | (0.02) | 3.06 | (3.55) | 11.48 | |
| SAIA | Saia Inc | (9.51) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.38 | (3.47) | 25.56 | |
| SNDR | Schneider National | 0.37 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.09 | (3.50) | 7.01 | |
| HTLD | Heartland Express | 0.09 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.40 | (3.10) | 7.76 | |
| TFII | TFI International | 1.90 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.21 | (2.42) | 9.58 | |
| ULH | Universal Logistics Holdings | 5.29 | 8 per month | 1.88 | 0.13 | 4.58 | (3.75) | 42.58 | |
| XPO | XPO Logistics | (1.56) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.34 | (3.06) | 10.95 |
Old Dominion Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Old price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Old using various technical indicators. When you analyze Old charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Old Dominion Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Old Dominion stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Old Dominion Freight, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Old Dominion based on analysis of Old Dominion hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Old Dominion's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Old Dominion's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.002229 | 0.004218 | 0.003948 | 0.004841 | Price To Sales Ratio | 6.62 | 5.09 | 7.56 | 7.94 |
Story Coverage note for Old Dominion
The number of cover stories for Old Dominion depends on current market conditions and Old Dominion's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Old Dominion is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Old Dominion's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Old Dominion Short Properties
Old Dominion's future price predictability will typically decrease when Old Dominion's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Old Dominion Freight often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Old Dominion's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Old Dominion's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 220.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 433.8 M |
Check out Old Dominion Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Old Dominion Freight information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Old Dominion's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Old Stock analysis
When running Old Dominion's price analysis, check to measure Old Dominion's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Old Dominion is operating at the current time. Most of Old Dominion's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Old Dominion's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Old Dominion's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Old Dominion to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Old Dominion's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Old Dominion. If investors know Old will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Old Dominion listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.039 | Dividend Share 0.86 | Earnings Share 5.68 | Revenue Per Share 26.959 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.012 |
The market value of Old Dominion Freight is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Old that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Old Dominion's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Old Dominion's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Old Dominion's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Old Dominion's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Old Dominion's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Old Dominion is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Old Dominion's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.