Independent Bank Group Stock Price Prediction
| IBTX Stock | USD 40.31 0.59 1.44% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
42
Oversold | Overbought |
Independent Bank stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Independent Bank shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Independent Bank's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Independent Bank and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Independent Bank's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Independent Bank Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Independent Bank's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.64) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.65 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.63 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.93 | Wall Street Target Price 46 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Independent Bank based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Independent stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Independent Bank over a specific investment horizon. Using Independent Bank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Independent Bank Group from the perspective of Independent Bank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Independent Bank using Independent Bank's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Independent using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Independent Bank's stock price.
Independent Bank Implied Volatility | 0.0 |
Independent Bank's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Independent Bank Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Independent Bank's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Independent Bank stock will not fluctuate a lot when Independent Bank's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Independent Bank. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Independent Bank to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Independent because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Independent Bank after-hype prediction price | USD 39.89 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Independent |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Independent Bank's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Independent Bank After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Independent Bank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Independent Bank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Independent Bank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Independent Bank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Independent Bank's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Independent Bank's historical news coverage. Independent Bank's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 37.52 and 42.26, respectively. We have considered Independent Bank's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Independent Bank is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Independent Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.
Independent Bank Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Independent Bank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Independent Bank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Independent Bank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 2.37 | 0.42 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
40.31 | 39.89 | 1.04 |
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Independent Bank Hype Timeline
Independent Bank is currently traded for 40.31. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.42, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Independent is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 39.89. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 56.56%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Independent Bank is about 3468.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 40.32. About 14.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.7. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Independent Bank has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.81. The entity last dividend was issued on the 1st of May 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Independent Bank Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Independent Bank Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Independent Bank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Independent Bank's future price movements. Getting to know how Independent Bank's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Independent Bank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NFBK | Northfield Bancorp | 0.41 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.32 | (4.92) | 12.36 | |
| FIDS | FNB Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 0.10 | (2.22) | 11.36 | |
| MIFF | Mifflinburg Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.97 | |
| CEFC | Commercial National Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.81 | (2.94) | 7.15 | |
| APLO | Apollo Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.13 | (0.17) | 13.92 | |
| KPCPY | Kasikornbank Public Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.49 | 0.03 | 3.72 | (4.20) | 9.65 |
Independent Bank Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Independent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Independent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Independent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Independent Bank Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Independent Bank stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Independent Bank Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Independent Bank based on analysis of Independent Bank hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Independent Bank's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Independent Bank's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0185 | 0.0299 | 0.0314 | Price To Sales Ratio | 5.24 | 2.27 | 2.16 |
Story Coverage note for Independent Bank
The number of cover stories for Independent Bank depends on current market conditions and Independent Bank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Independent Bank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Independent Bank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Independent Bank Short Properties
Independent Bank's future price predictability will typically decrease when Independent Bank's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Independent Bank Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Independent Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Independent Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 B |
Check out Independent Bank Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Independent Stock please use our How to Invest in Independent Bank guide.You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Complementary Tools for Independent Stock analysis
When running Independent Bank's price analysis, check to measure Independent Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Independent Bank is operating at the current time. Most of Independent Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Independent Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Independent Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Independent Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Independent Bank's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Independent Bank. If investors know Independent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Independent Bank listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.64) | Dividend Share 1.52 | Earnings Share 2.53 | Revenue Per Share 11.705 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) |
The market value of Independent Bank is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Independent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Independent Bank's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Independent Bank's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Independent Bank's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Independent Bank's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Independent Bank's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Independent Bank is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Independent Bank's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.