Genuine Parts Co Stock Price Prediction
| GPC Stock | USD 156.77 0.44 0.28% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
68
Oversold | Overbought |
Genuine Parts stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Genuine Parts shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Genuine Parts' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Genuine Parts and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Genuine Parts' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Genuine Parts Co, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Genuine Parts' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.17) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.58 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.9 | EPS Estimate Next Year 10.74 | Wall Street Target Price 167.37 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Genuine Parts based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Genuine stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Genuine Parts over a specific investment horizon. Using Genuine Parts hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Genuine Parts Co from the perspective of Genuine Parts response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Genuine Parts using Genuine Parts' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Genuine using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Genuine Parts' stock price.
Genuine Parts Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Genuine Parts' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Genuine. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Genuine Parts stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Genuine Parts may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Genuine Parts and may potentially protect profits, hedge Genuine Parts with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 146.0096 | Short Percent 0.0193 | Short Ratio 2.78 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.2 M | 50 Day MA 152.5372 |
Genuine Parts Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Genuine Parts' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Genuine. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Genuine can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Genuine Parts Co. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Genuine Parts' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Genuine Parts.
Genuine Parts Implied Volatility | 17.26 |
Genuine Parts' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Genuine Parts Co stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Genuine Parts' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Genuine Parts stock will not fluctuate a lot when Genuine Parts' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Genuine Parts. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Genuine Parts to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Genuine because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Genuine Parts after-hype prediction price | USD 157.02 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Genuine contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Genuine Parts Co will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.08% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Genuine Parts trading at USD 156.77, that is roughly USD 1.69 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Genuine Parts' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Genuine Parts Co options at the current volatility level of 17.26%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Genuine |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Genuine Parts' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Genuine Parts After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Genuine Parts at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Genuine Parts or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Genuine Parts, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Genuine Parts Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Genuine Parts' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Genuine Parts' historical news coverage. Genuine Parts' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 155.29 and 158.75, respectively. We have considered Genuine Parts' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Genuine Parts is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Genuine Parts is based on 3 months time horizon.
Genuine Parts Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Genuine Parts is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Genuine Parts backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Genuine Parts, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 1.72 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 10 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
156.77 | 157.02 | 0.16 |
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Genuine Parts Hype Timeline
On the 2nd of May Genuine Parts is traded for 156.77. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.25, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.1. Genuine is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 157.02 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 123.74%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Genuine Parts is about 309.35%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 156.87. The company reported the last year's revenue of 23.09 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.32 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 7.74 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Genuine Parts Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Genuine Parts Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Genuine Parts' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Genuine Parts' future price movements. Getting to know how Genuine Parts' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Genuine Parts may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DOV | Dover | (0.03) | 9 per month | 0.44 | 0.19 | 2.18 | (1.13) | 6.51 | |
| CINF | Cincinnati Financial | (0.38) | 9 per month | 1.62 | 0.01 | 2.41 | (1.61) | 11.59 | |
| LEG | Leggett Platt Incorporated | (0.17) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 2.20 | (3.48) | 13.35 | |
| GWW | WW Grainger | 4.51 | 8 per month | 1.20 | 0.01 | 2.08 | (1.96) | 8.86 | |
| ITW | Illinois Tool Works | (1.15) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 0.95 | (1.83) | 3.18 |
Genuine Parts Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Genuine price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Genuine using various technical indicators. When you analyze Genuine charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Genuine Parts Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Genuine Parts stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Genuine Parts Co, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Genuine Parts based on analysis of Genuine Parts hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Genuine Parts's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Genuine Parts's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0232 | 0.0202 | 0.0271 | 0.0334 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.07 | 1.11 | 0.84 | 0.95 |
Story Coverage note for Genuine Parts
The number of cover stories for Genuine Parts depends on current market conditions and Genuine Parts' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Genuine Parts is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Genuine Parts' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Genuine Parts Short Properties
Genuine Parts' future price predictability will typically decrease when Genuine Parts' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Genuine Parts Co often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Genuine Parts' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Genuine Parts' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 141 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Check out Genuine Parts Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Complementary Tools for Genuine Stock analysis
When running Genuine Parts' price analysis, check to measure Genuine Parts' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Genuine Parts is operating at the current time. Most of Genuine Parts' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Genuine Parts' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Genuine Parts' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Genuine Parts to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Genuine Parts' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Genuine Parts. If investors know Genuine will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Genuine Parts listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.17) | Dividend Share 3.85 | Earnings Share 8.98 | Revenue Per Share 165.038 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.003 |
The market value of Genuine Parts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Genuine that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Genuine Parts' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Genuine Parts' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Genuine Parts' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Genuine Parts' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Genuine Parts' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Genuine Parts is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Genuine Parts' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.