Covenant Logistics Group Stock Price Prediction
| CVLG Stock | USD 46.68 0.09 0.19% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
54
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.76) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.99 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.1 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.15 | Wall Street Target Price 67 |
Using Covenant Logistics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Covenant Logistics Group from the perspective of Covenant Logistics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Covenant Logistics using Covenant Logistics' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Covenant using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Covenant Logistics' stock price.
Covenant Logistics Implied Volatility | 20.57 |
Covenant Logistics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Covenant Logistics Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Covenant Logistics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Covenant Logistics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Covenant Logistics' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Covenant Logistics to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Covenant because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Covenant Logistics after-hype prediction price | USD 46.59 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Covenant contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Covenant Logistics Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.29% per day over the life of the 2024-06-21 option contract. With Covenant Logistics trading at USD 46.68, that is roughly USD 0.6 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Covenant Logistics' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Covenant Logistics Group options at the current volatility level of 20.57%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
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Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Covenant Logistics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Covenant Logistics After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Covenant Logistics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Covenant Logistics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Covenant Logistics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Covenant Logistics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Covenant Logistics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Covenant Logistics' historical news coverage. Covenant Logistics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 45.34 and 47.84, respectively. We have considered Covenant Logistics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Covenant Logistics is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Covenant Logistics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Covenant Logistics Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Covenant Logistics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Covenant Logistics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Covenant Logistics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
46.68 | 46.59 | 0.00 |
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Covenant Logistics Hype Timeline
Covenant Logistics is currently traded for 46.68. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Covenant is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Covenant Logistics is about 2010.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 46.68. About 27.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.47. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Covenant Logistics has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.24. The entity last dividend was issued on the 7th of June 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Covenant Logistics Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Covenant Logistics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Covenant Logistics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Covenant Logistics' future price movements. Getting to know how Covenant Logistics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Covenant Logistics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MRTN | Marten Transport | 0.04 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.71 | (2.41) | 5.82 | |
| WERN | Werner Enterprises | 0.54 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.37 | (2.35) | 7.45 | |
| ULH | Universal Logistics Holdings | (1.05) | 8 per month | 2.04 | 0.07 | 4.57 | (3.76) | 43.05 | |
| SNDR | Schneider National | 0.12 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 2.52 | (3.63) | 7.01 | |
| HTLD | Heartland Express | 0.02 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.40 | (2.53) | 7.88 | |
| PTSI | PAM Transportation Services | (0.04) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.13 | (5.05) | 27.35 |
Covenant Logistics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Covenant price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Covenant using various technical indicators. When you analyze Covenant charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About Covenant Logistics Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Covenant Logistics stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Covenant Logistics Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Covenant Logistics based on analysis of Covenant Logistics hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Covenant Logistics's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Covenant Logistics's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.009623 | 0.007155 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.54 | 0.5 |
Story Coverage note for Covenant Logistics
The number of cover stories for Covenant Logistics depends on current market conditions and Covenant Logistics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Covenant Logistics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Covenant Logistics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Covenant Logistics Short Properties
Covenant Logistics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Covenant Logistics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Covenant Logistics Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Covenant Logistics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Covenant Logistics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.3 M |
Complementary Tools for Covenant Stock analysis
When running Covenant Logistics' price analysis, check to measure Covenant Logistics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Covenant Logistics is operating at the current time. Most of Covenant Logistics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Covenant Logistics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Covenant Logistics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Covenant Logistics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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