Burford Capital Stock Price Prediction
| BUR Stock | USD 15.84 0.03 0.19% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
45
Oversold | Overbought |
Burford Capital stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Burford Capital shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Burford Capital's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Burford Capital and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Burford Capital's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Burford Capital, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Burford Capital's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.293 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.68 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.13 | Wall Street Target Price 20.13 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 2.987 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Burford Capital based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Burford stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Burford Capital over a specific investment horizon. Using Burford Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Burford Capital from the perspective of Burford Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Burford Capital using Burford Capital's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Burford using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Burford Capital's stock price.
Burford Capital Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Burford Capital's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Burford. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Burford Capital stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Burford Capital may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Burford Capital and may potentially protect profits, hedge Burford Capital with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 14.2167 | Short Percent 0.0076 | Short Ratio 1.27 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.1 M | 50 Day MA 15.1418 |
Burford Capital Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Burford Capital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Burford. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Burford can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Burford Capital. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Burford Capital's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Burford Capital.
Burford Capital Implied Volatility | 35.28 |
Burford Capital's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Burford Capital stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Burford Capital's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Burford Capital stock will not fluctuate a lot when Burford Capital's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Burford Capital. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Burford Capital to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Burford because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Burford Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 15.86 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Burford |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Burford Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Burford Capital After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Burford Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Burford Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Burford Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Burford Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Burford Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Burford Capital's historical news coverage. Burford Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.76 and 17.96, respectively. We have considered Burford Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Burford Capital is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Burford Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Burford Capital Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Burford Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Burford Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Burford Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 2.10 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
15.84 | 15.86 | 0.13 |
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Burford Capital Hype Timeline
On the 5th of May Burford Capital is traded for 15.84. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Burford is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 15.86 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.13%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on Burford Capital is about 903.23%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.87. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.1 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 625.23 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 310.98 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Burford Capital Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Burford Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Burford Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Burford Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Burford Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Burford Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IVZ | Invesco Plc | 0.18 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.49 | (2.36) | 9.93 | |
| BEN | Franklin Resources | (1.38) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.81 | (3.31) | 10.18 | |
| TROW | T Rowe Price | 1.02 | 8 per month | 1.53 | (0.01) | 2.71 | (2.37) | 8.21 | |
| SEIC | SEI Investments | 0.22 | 9 per month | 0.90 | 0.02 | 1.36 | (1.56) | 7.42 | |
| PFG | Principal Financial Group | (0.63) | 7 per month | 1.01 | (0.02) | 1.87 | (1.73) | 5.25 | |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group | 1.16 | 8 per month | 0.86 | 0.04 | 1.70 | (1.77) | 7.25 | |
| AMP | Ameriprise Financial | 1.44 | 9 per month | 0.97 | 0.05 | 1.34 | (1.68) | 5.26 | |
| JHG | Janus Henderson Group | (0.15) | 13 per month | 0.98 | 0.10 | 2.49 | (1.64) | 7.51 |
Burford Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Burford price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Burford using various technical indicators. When you analyze Burford charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Burford Capital Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Burford Capital stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Burford Capital, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Burford Capital based on analysis of Burford Capital hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Burford Capital's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Burford Capital's related companies. | 2020 | 2022 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 1.25 | 1.02 | Dividend Yield | 0.0177 | 0.0155 |
Story Coverage note for Burford Capital
The number of cover stories for Burford Capital depends on current market conditions and Burford Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Burford Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Burford Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Burford Capital Short Properties
Burford Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Burford Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Burford Capital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Burford Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Burford Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 223 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 327.6 M |
Check out Burford Capital Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Burford Stock, please use our How to Invest in Burford Capital guide.You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Complementary Tools for Burford Stock analysis
When running Burford Capital's price analysis, check to measure Burford Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Burford Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Burford Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Burford Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Burford Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Burford Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Burford Capital's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Burford Capital. If investors know Burford will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Burford Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.293 | Dividend Share 0.125 | Earnings Share 2.74 | Revenue Per Share 4.929 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 2.987 |
The market value of Burford Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Burford that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Burford Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Burford Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Burford Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Burford Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Burford Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Burford Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Burford Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.