Applied Materials Stock Price Prediction
| AMAT Stock | USD 203.38 5.88 2.98% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
51
Oversold | Overbought |
Applied Materials stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Applied Materials shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Applied Materials' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Applied Materials and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Applied Materials' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Applied Materials, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Applied Materials' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.193 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.26 | EPS Estimate Next Year 9.56 | Wall Street Target Price 221.58 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.91 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Applied Materials based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Applied stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Applied Materials over a specific investment horizon. Using Applied Materials hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Applied Materials from the perspective of Applied Materials response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Applied Materials using Applied Materials' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Applied using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Applied Materials' stock price.
Applied Materials Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Applied Materials' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Applied. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Applied Materials stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Applied Materials may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Applied Materials and may potentially protect profits, hedge Applied Materials with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 162.7926 | Short Percent 0.0151 | Short Ratio 2.69 | Shares Short Prior Month 12.5 M | 50 Day MA 203.0436 |
Applied Materials Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Applied Materials' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Applied. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Applied can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Applied Materials. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Applied Materials' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Applied Materials.
Applied Materials Implied Volatility | 36.78 |
Applied Materials' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Applied Materials stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Applied Materials' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Applied Materials stock will not fluctuate a lot when Applied Materials' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Applied Materials. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Applied Materials to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Applied because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Applied Materials after-hype prediction price | USD 203.38 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Applied contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Applied Materials will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.3% per day over the life of the 2024-05-03 option contract. With Applied Materials trading at USD 203.38, that is roughly USD 4.67 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Applied Materials' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Applied Materials options at the current volatility level of 36.78%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Applied |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Applied Materials' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Applied Materials After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Applied Materials at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Applied Materials or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Applied Materials, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Applied Materials Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Applied Materials' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Applied Materials' historical news coverage. Applied Materials' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 201.08 and 205.68, respectively. We have considered Applied Materials' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Applied Materials is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Applied Materials is based on 3 months time horizon.
Applied Materials Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Applied Materials is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Applied Materials backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Applied Materials, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 2.30 | 2.18 | 0.05 | 12 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
203.38 | 203.38 | 0.00 |
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Applied Materials Hype Timeline
Applied Materials is presently traded for 203.38. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.18, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Applied is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 36.98%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.35%. %. The volatility of related hype on Applied Materials is about 1666.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 203.33. About 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.48. Applied Materials recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.5. The entity last dividend was issued on the 22nd of May 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 17th of April 2002. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Applied Materials Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Applied Materials Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Applied Materials' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Applied Materials' future price movements. Getting to know how Applied Materials' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Applied Materials may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| POWI | Power Integrations | 0.75 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 4.15 | (3.24) | 13.35 | |
| DIOD | Diodes Incorporated | (2.29) | 11 per month | 2.11 | (0) | 4.19 | (3.64) | 9.51 | |
| MTSI | MACOM Technology Solutions | (0.58) | 8 per month | 2.23 | 0.05 | 3.64 | (3.47) | 10.03 | |
| CRUS | Cirrus Logic | (0.30) | 11 per month | 1.57 | 0.02 | 2.99 | (3.06) | 18.21 | |
| SLAB | Silicon Laboratories | (0.63) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.16 | (4.68) | 21.92 | |
| MXL | MaxLinear | (0.28) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.85 | (4.83) | 14.31 | |
| FORM | FormFactor | 1.04 | 12 per month | 2.70 | (0) | 4.45 | (5.00) | 15.49 | |
| SYNA | Synaptics Incorporated | 1.03 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 4.07 | (3.59) | 10.39 | |
| MCHP | Microchip Technology | (0.21) | 9 per month | 1.92 | (0) | 3.40 | (3.90) | 11.12 | |
| ALGM | Allegro MicrosystemsInc | 0.09 | 10 per month | 2.63 | 0.01 | 4.33 | (4.31) | 17.68 |
Applied Materials Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Applied price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Applied using various technical indicators. When you analyze Applied charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Applied Materials Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Applied Materials stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Applied Materials, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Applied Materials based on analysis of Applied Materials hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Applied Materials's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Applied Materials's related companies. | 2015 | 2020 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0144 | 0.008858 | 0.006601 | 0.006271 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.17 | 4.15 | 5.5 | 5.78 |
Story Coverage note for Applied Materials
The number of cover stories for Applied Materials depends on current market conditions and Applied Materials' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Applied Materials is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Applied Materials' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Applied Materials Short Properties
Applied Materials' future price predictability will typically decrease when Applied Materials' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Applied Materials often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Applied Materials' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Applied Materials' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 845 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.9 B |
Check out Applied Materials Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Applied Stock please use our How to Invest in Applied Materials guide.Note that the Applied Materials information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Applied Materials' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Complementary Tools for Applied Stock analysis
When running Applied Materials' price analysis, check to measure Applied Materials' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Applied Materials is operating at the current time. Most of Applied Materials' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Applied Materials' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Applied Materials' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Applied Materials to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Applied Materials' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Applied Materials. If investors know Applied will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Applied Materials listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.193 | Dividend Share 1.28 | Earnings Share 8.5 | Revenue Per Share 31.662 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
The market value of Applied Materials is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Applied that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Applied Materials' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Applied Materials' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Applied Materials' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Applied Materials' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Applied Materials' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Applied Materials is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Applied Materials' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.