MTL Market Value
| MTL Crypto | USD 1.83 0.01 0.54% |
| Symbol | MTL |
MTL 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to MTL's crypto coin what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of MTL.
| 04/16/2024 |
| 05/16/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in MTL on April 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding MTL or generate 0.0% return on investment in MTL over 30 days. MTL is related to or competes with Solana, XRP, Open Network, Staked Ether, Avalanche, Chainlink, and Starknet. MTL is peer-to-peer digital currency powered by the Blockchain technology.
MTL Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure MTL's crypto coin current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess MTL upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 5.92 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0461 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 45.3 | |||
| Value At Risk | (9.09) | |||
| Potential Upside | 10.99 |
MTL Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for MTL's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as MTL's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use MTL historical prices to predict the future MTL's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0467 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2204 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.46) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0503 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1932 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MTL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MTL Backtested Returns
MTL appears to be unusually volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. MTL has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0649, which conveys that digital coin had a 0.0649% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for MTL, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of coin. Please exercise MTL's risk adjusted performance of 0.0467, and Mean Deviation of 4.45 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. The crypto secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.96, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, MTL will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | 0.38 |
Below average predictability
MTL has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between MTL time series from 16th of April 2024 to 1st of May 2024 and 1st of May 2024 to 16th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of MTL price movement. The serial correlation of 0.38 indicates that just about 38.0% of current MTL price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.38 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.09 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
MTL lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is MTL crypto coin's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting MTL's crypto coin expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of MTL returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that MTL has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the crypto coin is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
MTL regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If MTL crypto coin is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if MTL crypto coin is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in MTL crypto coin over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
MTL Lagged Returns
When evaluating MTL's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of MTL crypto coin have on its future price. MTL autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, MTL autocorrelation shows the relationship between MTL crypto coin current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in MTL.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some cryptocurrency investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. However, unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards MTL in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the crypto's market sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools provided by cryptocurrency exchanges to gauge market sentiment could be utilized to time the market in a somewhat predictable way.
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MTL technical crypto coin analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, crypto market cycles, or different charting patterns.