Altria (Mexico) Market Value
| MO Stock | MXN 757.99 6.39 0.85% |
| Symbol | Altria |
Altria 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Altria's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Altria.
| 02/15/2024 |
| 05/15/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Altria on February 15, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Altria Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in Altria over 90 days. Altria is related to or competes with Capital One, Grupo Sports, United States, Genworth Financial, GMxico Transportes, CVS Health, and Verizon Communications. Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells cigarettes, smokeless products, and wine in the Uni... More
Altria Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Altria's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Altria Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0457 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.08 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.92) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.3 |
Altria Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Altria's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Altria's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Altria historical prices to predict the future Altria's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0688 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1458 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0353 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.72) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Altria's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Altria Group Backtested Returns
We consider Altria very steady. Altria Group secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.12, which signifies that the company had a 0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Altria Group, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Altria's Downside Deviation of 1.91, risk adjusted performance of 0.0688, and Mean Deviation of 0.9784 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.18%. Altria has a performance score of 9 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0814, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Altria are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Altria is likely to outperform the market. Altria Group right now shows a risk of 1.5%. Please confirm Altria Group potential upside, as well as the relationship between the kurtosis and day typical price , to decide if Altria Group will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.63 |
Good predictability
Altria Group has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Altria time series from 15th of February 2024 to 31st of March 2024 and 31st of March 2024 to 15th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Altria Group price movement. The serial correlation of 0.63 indicates that roughly 63.0% of current Altria price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.63 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.74 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 608.93 |
Altria Group lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Altria stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Altria's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Altria returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Altria has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Altria regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Altria stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Altria stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Altria stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Altria Lagged Returns
When evaluating Altria's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Altria stock have on its future price. Altria autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Altria autocorrelation shows the relationship between Altria stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Altria Group.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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When running Altria's price analysis, check to measure Altria's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Altria is operating at the current time. Most of Altria's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Altria's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Altria's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Altria to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Altria technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.