Fidelity Municipal Income Fund Market Value
| FHIGX Fund | USD 12.22 0.01 0.08% |
| Symbol | Fidelity |
Fidelity Municipal 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Fidelity Municipal's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Fidelity Municipal.
| 02/17/2024 |
| 05/17/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Fidelity Municipal on February 17, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Fidelity Municipal Income or generate 0.0% return on investment in Fidelity Municipal over 90 days. Fidelity Municipal is related to or competes with Fidelity Tax, Fidelity Intermediate, Fidelity Limited, Fidelity Gnma, and Fidelity California. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of assets in investment-grade municipal securities whose interest is exemp... More
Fidelity Municipal Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Fidelity Municipal's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Fidelity Municipal Income upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.2165 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.54) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.9831 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.25) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.2492 |
Fidelity Municipal Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Fidelity Municipal's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Fidelity Municipal's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Fidelity Municipal historical prices to predict the future Fidelity Municipal's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.43) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.20) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fidelity Municipal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fidelity Municipal Income Backtested Returns
We consider Fidelity Municipal very steady. Fidelity Municipal Income secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0396, which denotes the fund had a 0.0396% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Fidelity Municipal Income, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Fidelity Municipal's Coefficient Of Variation of 2524.72, downside deviation of 0.2165, and Mean Deviation of 0.1245 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0068%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0166, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Fidelity Municipal's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Fidelity Municipal is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.55 |
Good reverse predictability
Fidelity Municipal Income has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Fidelity Municipal time series from 17th of February 2024 to 2nd of April 2024 and 2nd of April 2024 to 17th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Fidelity Municipal Income price movement. The serial correlation of -0.55 indicates that about 55.0% of current Fidelity Municipal price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.55 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.16 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Fidelity Municipal Income lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Fidelity Municipal mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Fidelity Municipal's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Fidelity Municipal returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Fidelity Municipal has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Fidelity Municipal regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Fidelity Municipal mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Fidelity Municipal mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Fidelity Municipal mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Fidelity Municipal Lagged Returns
When evaluating Fidelity Municipal's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Fidelity Municipal mutual fund have on its future price. Fidelity Municipal autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Fidelity Municipal autocorrelation shows the relationship between Fidelity Municipal mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Fidelity Municipal Income.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| C | Citigroup | |
| CRM | Salesforce | |
| MSFT | Microsoft |
Check out Fidelity Municipal Correlation, Fidelity Municipal Volatility and Fidelity Municipal Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Fidelity Municipal. Note that the Fidelity Municipal Income information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Fidelity Municipal's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Fidelity Municipal technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.