Cf Industries Holdings Stock Market Value
| CF Stock | USD 74.26 0.31 0.42% |
| Symbol | CF Industries |
Is CF Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CF Industries. If investors know CF Industries will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CF Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of CF Industries Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CF Industries that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CF Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CF Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CF Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CF Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CF Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CF Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CF Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
CF Industries 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to CF Industries' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of CF Industries.
| 02/14/2024 |
| 05/14/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in CF Industries on February 14, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding CF Industries Holdings or generate 0.0% return on investment in CF Industries over 90 days. CF Industries is related to or competes with Intrepid Potash, and Corteva. CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions aba... More
CF Industries Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure CF Industries' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess CF Industries Holdings upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.82 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.20) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.59 |
CF Industries Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for CF Industries' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as CF Industries' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use CF Industries historical prices to predict the future CF Industries' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.0007) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.22) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.04) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CF Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CF Industries Holdings Backtested Returns
CF Industries Holdings retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0316, which signifies that the company had a -0.0316% return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. CF Industries exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm CF Industries' Information Ratio of (0.06), variance of 3.04, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.71, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, CF Industries' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding CF Industries is expected to be smaller as well. CF Industries Holdings has an expected return of -0.0546%. Please make sure to confirm CF Industries Holdings mean deviation, information ratio, potential upside, as well as the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to decide if CF Industries Holdings performance from the past will be repeated sooner or later.
Auto-correlation | -0.68 |
Very good reverse predictability
CF Industries Holdings has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between CF Industries time series from 14th of February 2024 to 30th of March 2024 and 30th of March 2024 to 14th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of CF Industries Holdings price movement. The serial correlation of -0.68 indicates that around 68.0% of current CF Industries price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.68 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.54 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 11.65 |
CF Industries Holdings lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is CF Industries stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting CF Industries' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of CF Industries returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that CF Industries has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
CF Industries regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If CF Industries stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if CF Industries stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in CF Industries stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
CF Industries Lagged Returns
When evaluating CF Industries' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of CF Industries stock have on its future price. CF Industries autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, CF Industries autocorrelation shows the relationship between CF Industries stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in CF Industries Holdings.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
CF Industries Investors Sentiment
The influence of CF Industries' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in CF Industries. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to CF Industries' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in CF Industries. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding CF Industries can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around CF Industries Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
CF Industries' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for CF Industries' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average CF Industries' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on CF Industries.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards CF Industries in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, CF Industries' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from CF Industries options trading.
Pair Trading with CF Industries
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if CF Industries position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in CF Industries will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to CF Industries could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace CF Industries when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back CF Industries - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling CF Industries Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of CF Industries is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as CF Industries moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if CF Industries Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for CF Industries can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out CF Industries Correlation, CF Industries Volatility and CF Industries Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on CF Industries. Note that the CF Industries Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other CF Industries' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for CF Industries Stock analysis
When running CF Industries' price analysis, check to measure CF Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CF Industries is operating at the current time. Most of CF Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CF Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CF Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CF Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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CF Industries technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.