Is First Watch Stock a Good Investment?

First Watch Investment Advice

  FWRG
To provide specific investment advice or recommendations on First Watch Restaurant stock, we recommend investors consider the following general factors when evaluating First Watch Restaurant. This will help you to make an informed decision on whether to include First Watch in one of your diversified portfolios:
  • Examine First Watch's financial health by looking at its balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement. Analyze key financial ratios, such as Price-to-Earnings (P/E), Price-to-Sales (P/S), and Price-to-Book (P/B), to determine whether the stock is fairly valued or over/undervalued.
  • Research First Watch's leadership team and their track record. Good management can help First Watch navigate difficult times and make strategic decisions that benefit shareholders and increases its net worth.
  • Consider the overall health of the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space and any emerging trends that could impact First Watch's business and its evolving consumer preferences.
  • Compare First Watch's performance and market position to its competitors. Analyze how First Watch is positioned in terms of product offerings, innovation, and market share.
  • Check if First Watch pays a dividend and its dividend yield and payout ratio.
  • Review what financial analysts are saying about First Watch's stock and their price targets. However, remember that analysts' opinions can vary, and their predictions may not always be accurate.
It's important to note that investing in First Watch Restaurant stock, carries risks, and you should carefully consider your investment goals and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Also, remember that it's important for investors to have a long-term perspective and a well-diversified portfolio to manage the impact of stock market volatility on their investments. Below is a detailed guide on how to decide if First Watch Restaurant is a good investment.
 
Sell
 
Buy
Strong Hold
Our investment recommendation module complements current analysts and expert consensus on First Watch. It analyzes the firm potential to grow using all fundamental, technical, and market related data available at the time. To make sure First Watch is not overpriced, please confirm all First Watch Restaurant fundamentals, including its revenue, cash flow from operations, working capital, as well as the relationship between the cash per share and number of employees . Given that First Watch Restaurant has a number of shares shorted of 4.19 M, we urge you to verify First Watch Restaurant market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Market Performance

Very WeakDetails

Volatility

Not too volatileDetails

Hype Condition

Under hypedDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

Above AverageDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Almost mirrors the marketDetails

Investor Sentiment

AlarmedDetails

Analyst Consensus

Strong BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

PoorDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails

Examine First Watch Stock

Researching First Watch's stock involves analyzing various aspects of the company and its industry to make an informed investment decision. The key areas to focus on are fundamentals, business model and competitive advantage. It is also important to analyze trends in revenue, net income, and cash flow, as well as key financial ratios, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and debt-to-equity (D/E). About 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of First Watch was currently reported as 9.52. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.17. First Watch Restaurant had not issued any dividends in recent years.
To determine if First Watch is a good investment, evaluating the company's potential for future growth is also very important. This may include expanding into new markets, launching new products or services, or improving operational efficiency. Companies with strong growth prospects can be more attractive investments. This aspect of the research should be conducted in the context of the overall market and industry in which the company operates and should include an analysis of growth potential, competitive landscape, and any regulatory or economic factors that could impact the business. Some of the essential points regarding First Watch's research are outlined below:
First Watch generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
First Watch has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company currently holds 606.97 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.95, which is about average as compared to similar companies. First Watch Restaurant has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist First Watch until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, First Watch's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like First Watch Restaurant sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for First to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about First Watch's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
First Watch has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 94.0% of First Watch shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: These 4 Measures Indicate That First Watch Restaurant Group Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

First Watch Quarterly Cash And Short Term Investments

43.5 Million

First Watch uses earnings reports to provide investors with an update of all three financial statements, including the income statement, the balance sheet, and the cash flow statement. Therefore, it is also crucial when considering investing in First Watch Restaurant. Every quarterly earnings report provides investors with an overview of sales, expenses, and net income for the most recent period. It also may provide a comparison to First Watch's previous reporting period. The quarterly earnings reports are usually disseminated to the public via Form 10-Q, which is a legal document filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission every quarter.
5th of March 2024
Upcoming Quarterly Report
View
7th of May 2024
Next Financial Report
View
31st of December 2023
Next Fiscal Quarter End
View
5th of March 2024
Next Fiscal Year End
View
30th of September 2023
Last Quarter Report
View
31st of December 2022
Last Financial Announcement
View
Earnings surprises can significantly impact First Watch's stock price both in the short term and over time. Negative earnings surprises usually result in a price decline. However, it has been seen that positive earnings surprises lead to an immediate rise in a stock's price and a gradual increase over time. This is why we often hear news about some companies beating earning projections. Financial analysts spend a large amount of time predicting earnings per share (EPS) along with other important future indicators. Many analysts use forecasting models, management guidance, and additional fundamental information to derive an EPS estimate. Below are the table of largest EPS Surprises First Watch's investors have experienced.
Reported
Fiscal Date
Estimated EPS
Reported EPS
Surprise
2022-08-09
2022-06-300.040.050.0125 
2024-05-07
2024-03-310.10.120.0220 
2022-11-07
2022-09-300.038.0E-4-0.029297 
2023-03-07
2022-12-310.02-0.01-0.03150 
2022-05-10
2022-03-310.050.080.0360 
2022-03-23
2021-12-31-0.07-0.040.0342 
2021-11-08
2021-09-30-0.010.020.03300 
2023-11-01
2023-09-300.040.090.05125 

First Watch Target Price Consensus

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. First target price is determined by taking all analyst projections and averaging them out. There is no one specific way to measure analysts' performance other than comparing it to past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. First Watch's target price projections below should be used in combination with other traditional price prediction techniques such as stock price forecasting, investor sentiment analysis, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
   9  Strong Buy
Most First analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to help potential investors understand First stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching the public financial statements of First Watch Restaurant, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to those companies' conference calls.
Macroaxis Advice   Exposure   Valuation

First Watch Target Price Projection

First Watch's current and average target prices are 20.94 and 23.22, respectively. The current price of First Watch is the price at which First Watch Restaurant is currently trading. On the other hand, First Watch's target price is what analysts think the stock is worth or could sell for in the future. The more significant the discrepancy between the two prices, the more it stimulates investors to act.

Current Price

First Watch Market Quote on 12th of May 2024

Low Price20.79Odds
High Price21.48Odds

20.94

Target Price

Analyst Consensus On First Watch Target Price

Low Estimate21.13Odds
High Estimate25.77Odds

23.22

Historical Lowest Forecast  21.13 Target Price  23.22 Highest Forecast  25.77
Note that most analysts generally publish their price targets in research reports on specific companies, along with recommendations for the company's stock.Although price targets are often quoted in the financial news media, there could be a delay between the publication of the latest analyst outlook on First Watch Restaurant and the information provided on this page.

First Watch Analyst Ratings

First Watch's analyst stock recommendations are determined by taking an average estimate of all analysts we track and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell, or Sell. Ratings generally communicate what analysts sense about First Watch stock, and they use a lot of effort and time to analyze it and arrive at a rating. That suggests that analyst recommendations are the outcome of an objective and thorough examination of First Watch's financials, market performance, and future outlook by experienced professionals. First Watch's historical ratings below, therefore, can serve as a valuable tool for investors.

Know First Watch's Top Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as First Watch is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Watch Restaurant backward and forwards among themselves. First Watch's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase First Watch's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Lord, Abbett & Co Llc2023-12-31
729.4 K
Neuberger Berman Group Llc2023-12-31
687.6 K
Gw&k Investment Management, Llc2023-12-31
681.9 K
Capital Research Global Investors2023-12-31
663 K
Driehaus Capital Management Llc2023-12-31
634 K
Kornitzer Capital Management Inc2023-12-31
593.7 K
Allspring Global Investments Holdings, Llc2023-12-31
591.2 K
Fmr Inc2023-12-31
562.2 K
Putnam Investments, Llc., A Franklin Templeton Company2023-12-31
555.8 K
Advent International Lp2023-12-31
34.1 M
Federated Hermes Inc2023-12-31
1.8 M
Note, although First Watch's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

First Watch's market capitalization trends

The company currently falls under 'Mid-Cap' category with a current market capitalization of 1.26 B. Market capitalization usually refers to the total value of a company's stock within the entire market. To calculate First Watch's market, we take the total number of its shares issued and multiply it by First Watch's current market price. To manage market risk and economic uncertainty, many investors today build portfolios that are diversified across equities with different market capitalizations. However, as a general rule, conservative investors tend to hold large-cap stocks, and those looking for more risk prefer small-cap and mid-cap equities.

Market Cap

1.22 Billion

First Watch's profitablity analysis

First Watch's profitability indicators refer to fundamental financial ratios that showcase First Watch's ability to generate income relative to its revenue or operating costs. If, let's say, First Watch is currently losing money, the management's focus should be on how to reverse that trend. However, when revenue exceeds expenses, First Watch's executives or investors may be in less hurry to break that information down - which is where profitability analysis comes into play. Gaining a greater understanding of First Watch's profitability requires more research than a typical breakdown of First Watch's financial statements. By doing a profitability analysis, companies can identify areas needing attention, and investors can make a profitable trade.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Return On Tangible Assets 0.03  0.03 
Return On Capital Employed 0.03  0.03 
Return On Assets 0.02  0.02 
Return On Equity 0.04  0.04 
The company has Profit Margin (PM) of 0.03 %, which maeans that even a very small decline in it revenue will erase profits resulting in a net loss. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows Operating Margin (OM) of 0.06 %, which suggests for every 100 dollars of sales, it generated a net operating income of $0.06.
Determining First Watch's profitability involves analyzing its financial statements and using various financial metrics to determine if First Watch is a good buy. For example, gross profit margin measures First Watch's profitability after accounting for the cost of goods sold, while net profit margin measures profitability after accounting for all expenses. Other important metrics include return on assets, return on equity, and free cash flow. By reviewing multiple sources and metrics, you can gain a complete picture of First Watch's profitability and make more informed investment decisions.
The data published in First Watch's official financial statements usually reflect First Watch's business processes, product offerings, services, and other fundamental events. But there are other numbers, ratios, or fundamental indicators derived from these statements that are easier to understand and visualize within the underlying realities that drive quantitative information of First Watch Restaurant. For example, before you start analyzing numbers published by First accountants, it's critical to develop an understanding of what First Watch's liquidity, profitability, and earnings quality are in the context of the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space in which it operates.
Please note, the presentation of First Watch's financial position, as portrayed in its financial statements, is often influenced by management's estimates, judgments, and sometimes even manipulations. In the best case, First Watch's management is honest, while the outside auditors are strict and uncompromising. Whatever the case, the imprecision that can be found in First Watch's accounting process means that the reasonable investor should take a skeptical approach toward the financial statement analysis of First Watch Restaurant. Please utilize our Beneish M Score to check the likelihood of First Watch's management manipulating its earnings.

Evaluate First Watch's management efficiency

First Watch Restaurant has return on total asset (ROA) of 0.0226 % which means that it generated a profit of $0.0226 on every $100 spent on assets. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows a return on stockholder's equity (ROE) of 0.0419 %, meaning that it created $0.0419 on every $100 dollars invested by stockholders. First Watch's management efficiency ratios could be used to measure how well First Watch manages its routine affairs as well as how well it operates its assets and liabilities. The First Watch's current Return On Tangible Assets is estimated to increase to 0.03. The First Watch's current Return On Capital Employed is estimated to increase to 0.03. At this time, First Watch's Return On Tangible Assets are most likely to slightly decrease in the upcoming years. The First Watch's current Intangibles To Total Assets is estimated to increase to 0.56, while Non Current Assets Total are projected to decrease to roughly 1.1 B.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Book Value Per Share 8.49  6.15 
Net Current Asset Value 0.00  0.00 
Tangible Asset Value 0.00  0.00 
Tangible Book Value Per Share 0.76  0.80 
Enterprise Value Over EBITDA 22.44  23.57 
Price Book Value Ratio 2.45  3.00 
Enterprise Value Multiple 22.44  23.57 
Price Fair Value 2.45  3.00 
Enterprise Value1.6 B1.2 B
The analysis of First Watch's management efficiency is an essential part of evaluating and assessing the financial and operational performance of the entity. It is also vital to analyze First Watch's future growth prospects and the overall market conditions to determine the value and potential of its stock. The analysis involves studying a range of financial metrics such as revenue, earnings, profit margins, cash flow, debt, market share, and external factors such as economic trends, industry outlook, competition, and government regulations. The goal of First Stock analysis is to determine whether it is undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued and to make informed investment decisions.
Beta
1.073

Basic technical analysis of First Stock

As of the 12th of May 2024, First Watch shows the Standard Deviation of 2.74, mean deviation of 1.73, and Variance of 7.51. First Watch Restaurant technical analysis allows you to utilize historical prices and volume patterns in order to determine a pattern that computes the direction of the firm's future prices. Put another way, you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of historical prices and volume momentum, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to interpolate data for thirteen technical drivers for First Watch Restaurant, which can be compared to its peers. Please confirm First Watch Restaurant market risk adjusted performance, information ratio, as well as the relationship between the Information Ratio and skewness to decide if First Watch Restaurant is priced favorably, providing market reflects its regular price of 20.94 per share. Given that First Watch has information ratio of (0.03), we urge you to verify First Watch Restaurant's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

First Watch's insider trading activities

Some recent studies suggest that insider trading raises the cost of capital for securities issuers and decreases overall economic growth. Trading by specific First Watch insiders, such as employees or executives, is commonly permitted as long as it does not rely on First Watch's material information that is not in the public domain. Local jurisdictions usually require such trading to be reported in order to monitor insider transactions. In many U.S. states, trading conducted by corporate officers, key employees, directors, or significant shareholders must be reported to the regulator or publicly disclosed, usually within a few business days of the trade. In these cases First Watch insiders are required to file a Form 4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) when buying or selling shares of their own companies.

Understand First Watch's technical and predictive indicators

Using predictive indicators to make investment decisions involves analyzing First Watch's various financial and market-based factors to help forecast future trends and identify investment opportunities. Select the indicators that are most relevant to your investment strategy. Each indicator has its own strengths and weaknesses, so it's essential to combine multiple indicators to get a more comprehensive view of the market and reduce the risk of making poor decisions based on limited data.

Consider First Watch's intraday indicators

First Watch intraday indicators are useful technical analysis tools used by many experienced traders. Just like the conventional technical analysis, daily indicators help intraday investors to analyze the price movement with the timing of First Watch stock daily movement. By combining multiple daily indicators into a single trading strategy, you can limit your risk while still earning strong returns on your managed positions.

First Watch Corporate Filings

8K
7th of May 2024
Report filed with the SEC to announce major events that shareholders should know about
ViewVerify
F4
23rd of April 2024
The report filed by a party regarding the acquisition or disposition of a company's common stock, as well as derivative securities such as options, warrants, and convertible securities
ViewVerify
8th of April 2024
Other Reports
ViewVerify
28th of March 2024
Other Reports
ViewVerify
First Watch time-series forecasting models is one of many First Watch's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary First Watch's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

First Stock media impact

Far too much social signal, news, headlines, and media speculation about First Watch that are available to investors today. That information is available publicly through First media outlets and privately through word of mouth or via First internal channels. However, regardless of the origin, that massive amount of First data is challenging to quantify into actionable patterns, especially for investors that are not very sophisticated with ever-evolving tools and techniques used in the investment management field.
A primary focus of First Watch news analysis is to determine if its current price reflects all relevant headlines and social signals impacting the current market conditions. A news analyst typically looks at the history of First Watch relative headlines and hype rather than examining external drivers such as technical or fundamental data. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned thinking related to First Watch's headlines and news coverage data. This data is often completely overlooked or insufficiently analyzed for actionable insights to drive First Watch alpha.

First Watch Sentiment by Major News Outlets

Investor sentiment, mood or attitude towards First Watch can have a significant impact on its stock price or the market as a whole. This sentiment can be positive or negative, and various factors, such as economic indicators, news events, or market trends, can influence it. When investor sentiment is positive, investors are more likely to buy stocks, increasing demand and increasing the stock price. Positive investor sentiment can be driven by good news about the company or the broader market, such as solid earnings reports or positive economic data.
Note that negative investor sentiment can cause investors to sell stocks, leading to a decrease in demand and a drop in the stock price. Negative sentiment can be driven by factors such as poor earnings reports, negative news about the company or industry, or broader economic concerns. It's important to note that investor sentiment is just one of many factors that can affect stock prices. Other factors, such as company performance, industry trends, and global economic conditions, can also play a significant role in determining the value of a stock.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in First Watch without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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First Watch Corporate Management

Elected by the shareholders, the First Watch's board of directors comprises two types of representatives: First Watch inside directors who are chosen from within the company, and outside directors, selected externally and held independent of First. The board's role is to monitor First Watch's management team and ensure that shareholders' interests are well served. First Watch's inside directors are responsible for reviewing and approving budgets prepared by upper management to implement core corporate initiatives and projects. On the other hand, First Watch's outside directors are responsible for providing unbiased perspectives on the board's policies.
Jay WolszczakGeneral OfficerProfile
Jody GaleSenior LegalProfile
Henry IIICFO TreasurerProfile
Shane SchaiblySenior IncProfile
Calum MiddletonInc RestaurantsProfile
Steven CFAVice RelationsProfile

How to buy First Stock?

To provide specific investment advice or recommendations on First Watch Restaurant stock, we recommend investors consider the following general factors when evaluating First Watch Restaurant. This will help you to make an informed decision on whether to include First Watch in one of your diversified portfolios:
  • Examine First Watch's financial health by looking at its balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement. Analyze key financial ratios, such as Price-to-Earnings (P/E), Price-to-Sales (P/S), and Price-to-Book (P/B), to determine whether the stock is fairly valued or over/undervalued.
  • Research First Watch's leadership team and their track record. Good management can help First Watch navigate difficult times and make strategic decisions that benefit shareholders and increases its net worth.
  • Consider the overall health of the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space and any emerging trends that could impact First Watch's business and its evolving consumer preferences.
  • Compare First Watch's performance and market position to its competitors. Analyze how First Watch is positioned in terms of product offerings, innovation, and market share.
  • Check if First Watch pays a dividend and its dividend yield and payout ratio.
  • Review what financial analysts are saying about First Watch's stock and their price targets. However, remember that analysts' opinions can vary, and their predictions may not always be accurate.
It's important to note that investing in First Watch Restaurant stock, carries risks, and you should carefully consider your investment goals and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Also, remember that it's important for investors to have a long-term perspective and a well-diversified portfolio to manage the impact of stock market volatility on their investments. Below is a detailed guide on how to decide if First Watch Restaurant is a good investment.

Already Invested in First Watch Restaurant?

The danger of trading First Watch Restaurant is mainly related to its market volatility and Company specific events. As an investor, you must understand the concept of risk-adjusted return before you start trading. The most common way to measure the risk of First Watch is by using the Sharpe ratio. The ratio expresses how much excess return you acquire for the extra volatility you endure for holding a more risker asset than First Watch. The Sharpe ratio is calculated by using standard deviation and excess return to determine reward per unit of risk. To understand how volatile First Watch Restaurant is, you must compare it to a benchmark. Traditionally, the risk-free rate of return is the rate of return on the shortest-dated U.S. Treasury, such as a 3-year bond.
When determining whether First Watch Restaurant is a strong investment it is important to analyze First Watch's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact First Watch's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding First Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in First Watch Restaurant. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in metropolitan statistical area.
You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

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Is First Watch's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Watch. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Watch listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.20)
Earnings Share
0.38
Revenue Per Share
15.448
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.147
Return On Assets
0.0226
The market value of First Watch Restaurant is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Watch's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Watch's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Watch's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Watch's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
In summary, please note that there is a difference between First Watch's value and its price, as these two are different measures arrived at by various means. Investors typically determine if First Watch is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Watch's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.