Discover Financial Services Stock Beneish M Score

DFS Stock  USD 127.70  2.03  1.62%   
This module uses fundamental data of Discover Financial to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Discover Financial M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Check out Discover Financial Piotroski F Score and Discover Financial Altman Z Score analysis.
  
At this time, Discover Financial's Long Term Debt Total is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Net Debt To EBITDA is likely to gain to 60.29 in 2024, whereas Net Debt is likely to drop slightly above 5.6 B in 2024. At this time, Discover Financial's POCF Ratio is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Interest Coverage is likely to gain to 20.89 in 2024, whereas PTB Ratio is likely to drop 1.71 in 2024.
At this time, it appears that Discover Financial is a possible manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Discover Financial's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Discover Financial executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Discover Financial's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-1.87
Beneish M Score - Possible Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables

1.0

Focus
Asset Quality

1.09

Focus
Expense Coverage

0.57

Focus
Gross Margin Strengs

0.81

Focus
Accruals Factor

0.57

Focus
Depreciation Resistance

0.44

Focus
Net Sales Growth

1.05

Focus
Financial Leverage Condition

1.27

Focus

Discover Financial Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Discover Financial's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Net Receivables126.5 B120.5 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Revenue21.6 B20.6 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Assets86.8 B151.6 B
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Total Current Assets3.3 B3.5 B
Notably Down
Pretty Stable
Non Current Assets Total155.5 B148.1 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Property Plant Equipment734 M1.2 B
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Depreciation And Amortization344 M187 M
Way Up
Slightly volatile
Selling General Administrative1.5 B2.4 B
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Total Current Liabilities5.9 B6.2 B
Notably Down
Pretty Stable
Non Current Liabilities Total137.1 B130.6 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Short Term Debt2.1 B2.2 B
Notably Down
Very volatile
Long Term Debt17.4 B20.6 B
Fairly Down
Slightly volatile
Operating Income18 B17.1 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Cash From Operating Activities4.7 B8.6 B
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Short Term Investments1.7 B2.1 B
Significantly Down
Very volatile
Long Term Investments13 B13.7 B
Notably Down
Slightly volatile
Gross Profit Margin0.730.9
Significantly Down
Pretty Stable

Discover Financial Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Discover Financial's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Discover Financial in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Discover Financial's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Discover Financial Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Other Operating Expenses

17.48 Billion

At this time, Discover Financial's Other Operating Expenses is comparatively stable compared to the past year.

Discover Financial Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Discover Financial. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Net Receivables92.5B944M914M104.7B120.5B126.5B
Total Revenue11.5B11.1B12.1B13.3B20.6B21.6B
Total Assets114.0B112.9B110.2B131.6B151.6B86.8B
Total Current Assets18.4B29.3B21.2B10.6B3.5B3.3B
Net Debt8.1B(4.5B)2.0B(997M)9.6B5.6B
Short Term Debt5.2B4.2B1.3B3.8B2.2B2.1B
Long Term Debt25.7B21.2B19.0B20.1B20.6B17.4B
Operating Income3.8B1.4B7.1B7.6B17.1B18.0B
Investments(15.0B)1.8B234M(25.4B)(27.7B)(26.3B)

Discover Financial ESG Sustainability

Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, Discover Financial's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Discover Financial's managers, analysts, and investors.
Environment Score
Governance Score
Social Score

About Discover Financial Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Discover Financial Services's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Discover Financial using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Discover Financial Services based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.

Pair Trading with Discover Financial

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Discover Financial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Discover Financial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Discover Stock

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Moving against Discover Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Discover Financial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Discover Financial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Discover Financial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Discover Financial Services to buy it.
The correlation of Discover Financial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Discover Financial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Discover Financial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Discover Financial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Discover Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze Discover Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Discover Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Discover Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Discover Financial Piotroski F Score and Discover Financial Altman Z Score analysis.
Note that the Discover Financial information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Discover Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.

Complementary Tools for Discover Stock analysis

When running Discover Financial's price analysis, check to measure Discover Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Discover Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Discover Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Discover Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Discover Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Discover Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Discover Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Discover Financial. If investors know Discover will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Discover Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.69)
Dividend Share
2.8
Earnings Share
8.79
Revenue Per Share
39.45
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.294
The market value of Discover Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Discover that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Discover Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Discover Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Discover Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Discover Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Discover Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Discover Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Discover Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.