Penn National Gaming Stock Price Prediction
| PENN Stock | USD 17.25 0.09 0.52% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
47
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.089 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.05 | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.31) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.84 | Wall Street Target Price 22.03 |
Using Penn National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Penn National Gaming from the perspective of Penn National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Penn National using Penn National's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Penn using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Penn National's stock price.
Penn National Short Interest
An investor who is long Penn National may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Penn National and may potentially protect profits, hedge Penn National with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 20.7428 | Short Percent 0.2228 | Short Ratio 4.37 | Shares Short Prior Month 29.8 M | 50 Day MA 16.5568 |
Penn National Gaming Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Penn National's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Penn. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Penn can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Penn National Gaming. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Penn National's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Penn National.
Penn National Implied Volatility | 69.28 |
Penn National's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Penn National Gaming stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Penn National's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Penn National stock will not fluctuate a lot when Penn National's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Penn National to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Penn because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Penn National after-hype prediction price | USD 17.48 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Penn contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Penn National Gaming will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.33% per day over the life of the 2024-06-14 option contract. With Penn National trading at USD 17.25, that is roughly USD 0.75 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Penn National's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Penn National Gaming options at the current volatility level of 69.28%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Penn |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Penn National's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Penn National After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Penn National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Penn National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Penn National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Penn National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Penn National's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Penn National's historical news coverage. Penn National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.63 and 21.33, respectively. We have considered Penn National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Penn National is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Penn National Gaming is based on 3 months time horizon.
Penn National Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Penn National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Penn National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Penn National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 3.85 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
17.25 | 17.48 | 0.34 |
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Penn National Hype Timeline
Penn National Gaming is at this time traded for 17.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Penn is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 17.48 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.34%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Penn National is about 2347.56%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.26. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 6.36 B. Net Loss for the year was (490 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.02 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Penn National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Penn National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Penn National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Penn National's future price movements. Getting to know how Penn National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Penn National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DKNG | DraftKings | (0.31) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.58 | (3.58) | 15.98 | |
| MGM | MGM Resorts International | 1.46 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 2.82 | (3.16) | 9.50 | |
| CZR | Caesars Entertainment | (0.56) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.38 | (4.66) | 11.96 | |
| BYD | Boyd Gaming | 0.84 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.63 | (2.70) | 19.17 | |
| WYNN | Wynn Resorts Limited | (0.61) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.62 | (2.10) | 9.74 |
Penn National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Penn price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Penn using various technical indicators. When you analyze Penn charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
About Penn National Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Penn National stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Penn National Gaming, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Penn National based on analysis of Penn National hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Penn National's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Penn National's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 59.06 | 90.56 | 121.2 | 127.26 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 15.34 | 10.66 | 18.56 | 19.95 |
Story Coverage note for Penn National
The number of cover stories for Penn National depends on current market conditions and Penn National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Penn National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Penn National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Penn National Short Properties
Penn National's future price predictability will typically decrease when Penn National's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Penn National Gaming often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Penn National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Penn National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 152.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Penn Stock
When determining whether Penn National Gaming offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Penn National's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Penn National Gaming Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Penn National Gaming Stock:Check out Penn National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Penn National. If investors know Penn will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Penn National listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.089 | Earnings Share (7.33) | Revenue Per Share 41.493 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) | Return On Assets 0.0068 |
The market value of Penn National Gaming is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Penn that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Penn National's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Penn National's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Penn National's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Penn National's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Penn National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Penn National is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Penn National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.