Mogu Inc Stock Price Prediction
| MOGU Stock | USD 2.44 0.34 16.19% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
55
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 35.66 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.28) |
Using MOGU hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MOGU Inc from the perspective of MOGU response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in MOGU to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying MOGU because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
MOGU after-hype prediction price | USD 2.42 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
MOGU |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MOGU's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MOGU After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MOGU at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MOGU or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MOGU, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MOGU Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MOGU's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MOGU's historical news coverage. MOGU's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.12 and 8.43, respectively. We have considered MOGU's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MOGU is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MOGU Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
MOGU Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MOGU is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MOGU backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MOGU, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.52 | 6.01 | 0.02 | 0.18 | 4 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.44 | 2.42 | 0.82 |
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MOGU Hype Timeline
MOGU Inc is now traded for 2.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.18. MOGU is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 2.42. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.82%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.52%. The volatility of related hype on MOGU is about 1707.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.26. About 16.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.19. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. MOGU Inc recorded a loss per share of 2.53. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:12 split on the 28th of March 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days. Check out MOGU Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.MOGU Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MOGU's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MOGU's future price movements. Getting to know how MOGU's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MOGU may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SE | Sea | 0.65 | 8 per month | 1.86 | 0.13 | 4.34 | (3.26) | 11.20 | |
| W | Wayfair | (1.64) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 7.63 | (5.03) | 20.33 | |
| CHWY | Chewy Inc | (0.51) | 7 per month | 3.28 | 0.11 | 6.22 | (5.85) | 28.68 | |
| VIPS | Vipshop Holdings Limited | 0.42 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.38 | (3.70) | 10.97 | |
| JD | JD Inc Adr | (0.68) | 11 per month | 2.27 | 0.11 | 5.32 | (3.87) | 16.04 |
MOGU Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MOGU price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MOGU using various technical indicators. When you analyze MOGU charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About MOGU Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of MOGU stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as MOGU Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of MOGU based on analysis of MOGU hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to MOGU's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to MOGU's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 29.67 | 13.35 | 15.35 | 14.59 | PTB Ratio | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.32 |
Story Coverage note for MOGU
The number of cover stories for MOGU depends on current market conditions and MOGU's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MOGU is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MOGU's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MOGU Short Properties
MOGU's future price predictability will typically decrease when MOGU's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MOGU Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MOGU's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MOGU's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 562 M |
Additional Tools for MOGU Stock Analysis
When running MOGU's price analysis, check to measure MOGU's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MOGU is operating at the current time. Most of MOGU's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MOGU's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MOGU's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MOGU to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.