Elbit Systems Stock Price Prediction
| ESLT Stock | USD 199.28 0.58 0.29% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
47
Oversold | Overbought |
Elbit Systems stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Elbit Systems shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Elbit Systems' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Elbit Systems and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Elbit Systems' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Elbit Systems, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Elbit Systems' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.65) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.35 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.3 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.32 | Wall Street Target Price 220 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Elbit Systems based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Elbit stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Elbit Systems over a specific investment horizon. Using Elbit Systems hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Elbit Systems from the perspective of Elbit Systems response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Elbit Systems Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Elbit Systems' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Elbit. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Elbit can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Elbit Systems. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Elbit Systems' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Elbit Systems.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Elbit Systems. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Elbit Systems to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Elbit because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Elbit Systems after-hype prediction price | USD 199.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Elbit |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Elbit Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Elbit Systems After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Elbit Systems at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Elbit Systems or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Elbit Systems, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Elbit Systems Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Elbit Systems' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Elbit Systems' historical news coverage. Elbit Systems' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 197.77 and 200.77, respectively. We have considered Elbit Systems' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Elbit Systems is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Elbit Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.
Elbit Systems Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Elbit Systems is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Elbit Systems backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Elbit Systems, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.50 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
199.28 | 199.27 | 0.01 |
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Elbit Systems Hype Timeline
Elbit Systems is currently traded for 199.28. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Elbit is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 199.27. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.02%. The volatility of related hype on Elbit Systems is about 83.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 199.24. About 44.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Elbit Systems was currently reported as 66.31. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.21. Elbit Systems last dividend was issued on the 24th of April 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Elbit Systems Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Elbit Systems Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Elbit Systems' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Elbit Systems' future price movements. Getting to know how Elbit Systems' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Elbit Systems may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NOC | Northrop Grumman | (9.91) | 9 per month | 0.88 | 0.01 | 1.59 | (1.53) | 5.18 | |
| GD | General Dynamics | (0.05) | 10 per month | 0.75 | 0.09 | 1.19 | (0.82) | 7.17 | |
| LHX | L3Harris Technologies | (0.14) | 10 per month | 0.81 | 0.01 | 1.71 | (1.51) | 5.06 | |
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | (1.02) | 6 per month | 0.43 | 0.09 | 1.36 | (0.81) | 3.60 | |
| HII | Huntington Ingalls Industries | (1.24) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.64 | (1.63) | 14.70 | |
| RKLB | Rocket Lab USA | (0.01) | 9 per month | 2.60 | (0.02) | 3.90 | (4.31) | 14.69 | |
| ASTR | Astra Space | (0.28) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 7.81 | (10.46) | 47.66 |
Elbit Systems Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Elbit price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Elbit using various technical indicators. When you analyze Elbit charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Elbit Systems Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Elbit Systems stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Elbit Systems, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Elbit Systems based on analysis of Elbit Systems hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Elbit Systems's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Elbit Systems's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0103 | 0.009431 | 0.00896 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.46 | 1.56 | 0.82 |
Story Coverage note for Elbit Systems
The number of cover stories for Elbit Systems depends on current market conditions and Elbit Systems' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Elbit Systems is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Elbit Systems' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Elbit Systems Short Properties
Elbit Systems' future price predictability will typically decrease when Elbit Systems' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Elbit Systems often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Elbit Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Elbit Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 44.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 206.2 M |
Check out Elbit Systems Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Elbit Stock please use our How to Invest in Elbit Systems guide.You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Complementary Tools for Elbit Stock analysis
When running Elbit Systems' price analysis, check to measure Elbit Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Elbit Systems is operating at the current time. Most of Elbit Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Elbit Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Elbit Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Elbit Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Elbit Systems' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Elbit Systems. If investors know Elbit will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Elbit Systems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.65) | Dividend Share 2 | Earnings Share 4.82 | Revenue Per Share 134.642 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.079 |
The market value of Elbit Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Elbit that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Elbit Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Elbit Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Elbit Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Elbit Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Elbit Systems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Elbit Systems is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Elbit Systems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.