Farmers Merchants Bancorp Stock Price Prediction
| FMAO Stock | USD 22.53 0.07 0.31% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
50
Oversold | Overbought |
Farmers Merchants Bancorp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Farmers Merchants shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Farmers Merchants' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Farmers Merchants and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Farmers Merchants' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Farmers Merchants Bancorp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Farmers Merchants based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Farmers stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Farmers Merchants over a specific investment horizon. Using Farmers Merchants hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Farmers Merchants Bancorp from the perspective of Farmers Merchants response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Farmers Merchants. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Farmers Merchants to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Farmers because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Farmers Merchants after-hype prediction price | USD 22.56 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Farmers |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Farmers Merchants' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Farmers Merchants After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Farmers Merchants at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Farmers Merchants or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Farmers Merchants, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Farmers Merchants Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Farmers Merchants' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Farmers Merchants' historical news coverage. Farmers Merchants' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.85 and 25.27, respectively. We have considered Farmers Merchants' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Farmers Merchants is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Farmers Merchants Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Farmers Merchants Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Farmers Merchants is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Farmers Merchants backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Farmers Merchants, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 2.71 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 6 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
22.53 | 22.56 | 0.13 |
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Farmers Merchants Hype Timeline
Farmers Merchants Bancorp is currently traded for 22.53. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.11. Farmers is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 22.56 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.13%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.25%. The volatility of related hype on Farmers Merchants is about 607.62%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.42. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 155.1 M. Net Income was 22.54 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 97.72 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Farmers Merchants Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Farmers Merchants Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Farmers Merchants' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Farmers Merchants' future price movements. Getting to know how Farmers Merchants' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Farmers Merchants may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CULL | Cullman Bancorp | (0.19) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.21 | (1.85) | 8.67 | |
| FFNW | First Financial Northwest | (0.11) | 8 per month | 0.62 | (0.09) | 1.51 | (0.98) | 3.79 | |
| FNWB | First Northwest Bancorp | (0.15) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.04 | (7.24) | 14.50 | |
| FCAP | First Capital | (1.56) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.67 | (3.51) | 9.67 | |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | (0.22) | 7 per month | 1.30 | 0.08 | 3.38 | (2.09) | 33.38 |
Farmers Merchants Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Farmers price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Farmers using various technical indicators. When you analyze Farmers charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Farmers Merchants Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Farmers Merchants stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Farmers Merchants Bancorp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Farmers Merchants based on analysis of Farmers Merchants hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Farmers Merchants's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Farmers Merchants's related companies. Story Coverage note for Farmers Merchants
The number of cover stories for Farmers Merchants depends on current market conditions and Farmers Merchants' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Farmers Merchants is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Farmers Merchants' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Farmers Merchants Short Properties
Farmers Merchants' future price predictability will typically decrease when Farmers Merchants' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Farmers Merchants Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Farmers Merchants' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Farmers Merchants' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | -140.9 M |
Check out Farmers Merchants Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Farmers Merchants Bancorp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Farmers Merchants' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Complementary Tools for Farmers Stock analysis
When running Farmers Merchants' price analysis, check to measure Farmers Merchants' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Farmers Merchants is operating at the current time. Most of Farmers Merchants' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Farmers Merchants' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Farmers Merchants' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Farmers Merchants to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Farmers Merchants' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Farmers Merchants. If investors know Farmers will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Farmers Merchants listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Farmers Merchants Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Farmers that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Farmers Merchants' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Farmers Merchants' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Farmers Merchants' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Farmers Merchants' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Farmers Merchants' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Farmers Merchants is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Farmers Merchants' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.