Magnachip Semiconductor (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 4.50
| SMG Stock | EUR 4.50 0.08 1.81% |
Magnachip |
Magnachip Semiconductor Target Price Odds to finish over 4.50
The tendency of Magnachip Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 4.50 | 90 days | 4.50 | about 84.13 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Magnachip Semiconductor to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 84.13 (This Magnachip Semiconductor probability density function shows the probability of Magnachip Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Magnachip Semiconductor has a beta of 0.52. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Magnachip Semiconductor average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Magnachip Semiconductor will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Magnachip Semiconductor has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Magnachip Semiconductor Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Magnachip Semiconductor
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Magnachip Semiconductor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Magnachip Semiconductor's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Magnachip Semiconductor Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Magnachip Semiconductor is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Magnachip Semiconductor's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Magnachip Semiconductor, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Magnachip Semiconductor within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.23 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.52 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Magnachip Semiconductor Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Magnachip Semiconductor for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Magnachip Semiconductor can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Magnachip Semiconductor generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Magnachip Semiconductor has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 337.66 M. Net Loss for the year was (8.04 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 101.26 M. | |
| About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Magnachip Semiconductor Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Magnachip Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Magnachip Semiconductor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Magnachip Semiconductor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 43.8 M |
Magnachip Semiconductor Technical Analysis
Magnachip Semiconductor's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Magnachip Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Magnachip Semiconductor. In general, you should focus on analyzing Magnachip Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Magnachip Semiconductor Predictive Forecast Models
Magnachip Semiconductor's time-series forecasting models is one of many Magnachip Semiconductor's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Magnachip Semiconductor's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Magnachip Semiconductor
Checking the ongoing alerts about Magnachip Semiconductor for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Magnachip Semiconductor help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Magnachip Semiconductor generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Magnachip Semiconductor has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 337.66 M. Net Loss for the year was (8.04 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 101.26 M. | |
| About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Magnachip Stock
When determining whether Magnachip Semiconductor offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Magnachip Semiconductor's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Magnachip Semiconductor Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Magnachip Semiconductor Stock:Check out Magnachip Semiconductor Backtesting, Magnachip Semiconductor Valuation, Magnachip Semiconductor Correlation, Magnachip Semiconductor Hype Analysis, Magnachip Semiconductor Volatility, Magnachip Semiconductor History as well as Magnachip Semiconductor Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Magnachip Stock please use our How to Invest in Magnachip Semiconductor guide.You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.