Roche Holding (Switzerland) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 229.6
| ROG Stock | CHF 238.10 2.00 0.85% |
Roche |
Roche Holding Target Price Odds to finish over 229.6
The tendency of Roche Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above ₣ 229.60 in 90 days |
| 238.10 | 90 days | 229.60 | about 28.75 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Roche Holding to stay above ₣ 229.60 in 90 days from now is about 28.75 (This Roche Holding AG probability density function shows the probability of Roche Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Roche Holding AG price to stay between ₣ 229.60 and its current price of ₣238.1 at the end of the 90-day period is about 27.35 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Roche Holding AG has a beta of -0.13 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Roche Holding are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Roche Holding AG is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Roche Holding AG has an alpha of 0.1016, implying that it can generate a 0.1 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Roche Holding Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Roche Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Roche Holding AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Roche Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Roche Holding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Roche Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Roche Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Roche Holding AG, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Roche Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.10 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Roche Holding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Roche Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Roche Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Roche Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 860 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13 B |
Roche Holding Technical Analysis
Roche Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Roche Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Roche Holding AG. In general, you should focus on analyzing Roche Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Roche Holding Predictive Forecast Models
Roche Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many Roche Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Roche Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Roche Holding in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Roche Holding's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Roche Holding options trading.
Additional Tools for Roche Stock Analysis
When running Roche Holding's price analysis, check to measure Roche Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Roche Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Roche Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Roche Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Roche Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Roche Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.