Luna Innovations Incorporated Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.08
| LUNA Stock | USD 2.86 0.20 6.54% |
Closest to current price Luna long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Luna |
Luna Innovations Target Price Odds to finish over 2.08
The tendency of Luna Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 2.08 in 90 days |
| 2.86 | 90 days | 2.08 | about 89.2 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Luna Innovations to stay above $ 2.08 in 90 days from now is about 89.2 (This Luna Innovations Incorporated probability density function shows the probability of Luna Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Luna Innovations price to stay between $ 2.08 and its current price of $2.86 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.48 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.97 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Luna Innovations will likely underperform. Additionally Luna Innovations Incorporated has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Luna Innovations Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Luna Innovations
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Luna Innovations. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Luna Innovations' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Luna Innovations Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Luna Innovations is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Luna Innovations' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Luna Innovations Incorporated, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Luna Innovations within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -1.24 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.97 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
Luna Innovations Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Luna Innovations for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Luna Innovations can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Luna Innovations generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Luna Innovations has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 116.61 M. Net Loss for the year was (2.12 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 66.5 M. | |
| Luna Innovations Incorporated currently holds about 7.89 M in cash with (13.42 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.24. | |
| Luna Innovations has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 61.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from accesswire.com: Lost Money on Luna Innovations Incorporated Join Class Action Suit Seeking Recovery - Contact Levi Korsinsky |
Luna Innovations Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Luna Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Luna Innovations' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Luna Innovations' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 32.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6 M |
Luna Innovations Technical Analysis
Luna Innovations' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Luna Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Luna Innovations Incorporated. In general, you should focus on analyzing Luna Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Luna Innovations Predictive Forecast Models
Luna Innovations' time-series forecasting models is one of many Luna Innovations' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Luna Innovations' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Luna Innovations
Checking the ongoing alerts about Luna Innovations for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Luna Innovations help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Luna Innovations generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Luna Innovations has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 116.61 M. Net Loss for the year was (2.12 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 66.5 M. | |
| Luna Innovations Incorporated currently holds about 7.89 M in cash with (13.42 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.24. | |
| Luna Innovations has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 61.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from accesswire.com: Lost Money on Luna Innovations Incorporated Join Class Action Suit Seeking Recovery - Contact Levi Korsinsky |
Check out Luna Innovations Backtesting, Luna Innovations Valuation, Luna Innovations Correlation, Luna Innovations Hype Analysis, Luna Innovations Volatility, Luna Innovations History as well as Luna Innovations Performance. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Complementary Tools for Luna Stock analysis
When running Luna Innovations' price analysis, check to measure Luna Innovations' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Luna Innovations is operating at the current time. Most of Luna Innovations' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Luna Innovations' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Luna Innovations' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Luna Innovations to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Luna Innovations' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Luna Innovations. If investors know Luna will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Luna Innovations listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.68) | Earnings Share (0.03) | Revenue Per Share 3.487 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.053 | Return On Assets 0.0055 |
The market value of Luna Innovations is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Luna that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Luna Innovations' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Luna Innovations' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Luna Innovations' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Luna Innovations' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Luna Innovations' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Luna Innovations is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Luna Innovations' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.