Luna Innovations Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

LUNA Stock  USD 2.86  0.20  6.54%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Luna Innovations Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 2.88 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.21  and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.66. Luna Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Luna Innovations stock prices and determine the direction of Luna Innovations Incorporated's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Luna Innovations' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Luna Innovations' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Luna Innovations' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Luna Innovations fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Luna Innovations to cross-verify your projections.
  
At present, Luna Innovations' Payables Turnover is projected to drop based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Receivables Turnover is expected to grow to 4.26, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 1.28. . The current year's Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to grow to about 39.4 M. The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 11.2 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Luna Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Luna Innovations' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Luna Innovations' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Luna Innovations stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Luna Innovations' open interest, investors have to compare it to Luna Innovations' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Luna Innovations is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Luna. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Luna Innovations cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Luna Innovations' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Luna Innovations' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Luna Innovations - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Luna Innovations prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Luna Innovations price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Luna Innovations.

Luna Innovations Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Luna Innovations Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 2.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.66.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Luna Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Luna Innovations' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Luna Innovations Stock Forecast Pattern

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Luna Innovations Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Luna Innovations' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Luna Innovations' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 10.99, respectively. We have considered Luna Innovations' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.86
2.88
Expected Value
10.99
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Luna Innovations stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Luna Innovations stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0292
MADMean absolute deviation0.2145
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0563
SAESum of the absolute errors12.6563
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Luna Innovations observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Luna Innovations Incorporated observations.

Predictive Modules for Luna Innovations

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Luna Innovations. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Luna Innovations' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.142.8710.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.234.6912.73
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
9.2810.2011.32
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.060.060.07
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Luna Innovations. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Luna Innovations' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Luna Innovations' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Luna Innovations.

Other Forecasting Options for Luna Innovations

For every potential investor in Luna, whether a beginner or expert, Luna Innovations' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Luna Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Luna. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Luna Innovations' price trends.

Luna Innovations Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Luna Innovations stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Luna Innovations could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Luna Innovations by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Luna Innovations Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Luna Innovations' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Luna Innovations' current price.

Luna Innovations Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Luna Innovations stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Luna Innovations shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Luna Innovations stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Luna Innovations Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Luna Innovations Risk Indicators

The analysis of Luna Innovations' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Luna Innovations' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting luna stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Luna Innovations in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Luna Innovations' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Luna Innovations options trading.

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When determining whether Luna Innovations offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Luna Innovations' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Luna Innovations Incorporated Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Luna Innovations Incorporated Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Luna Innovations to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.

Complementary Tools for Luna Stock analysis

When running Luna Innovations' price analysis, check to measure Luna Innovations' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Luna Innovations is operating at the current time. Most of Luna Innovations' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Luna Innovations' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Luna Innovations' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Luna Innovations to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Luna Innovations' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Luna Innovations. If investors know Luna will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Luna Innovations listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.68)
Earnings Share
(0.03)
Revenue Per Share
3.487
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.053
Return On Assets
0.0055
The market value of Luna Innovations is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Luna that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Luna Innovations' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Luna Innovations' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Luna Innovations' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Luna Innovations' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Luna Innovations' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Luna Innovations is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Luna Innovations' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.