Vale Indonesia (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 5125.00
| INCO Stock | IDR 5,125 315.00 6.55% |
Vale |
Vale Indonesia Target Price Odds to finish over 5125.00
The tendency of Vale Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 5,125 | 90 days | 5,125 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vale Indonesia to move above the current price in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Vale Indonesia Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Vale Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Vale Indonesia has a beta of 0.88. This usually indicates Vale Indonesia Tbk market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Vale Indonesia is expected to follow. Additionally Vale Indonesia Tbk has an alpha of 0.3674, implying that it can generate a 0.37 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Vale Indonesia Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vale Indonesia
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vale Indonesia Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vale Indonesia's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vale Indonesia Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vale Indonesia is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vale Indonesia's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vale Indonesia Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vale Indonesia within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.37 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.88 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 299.47 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Vale Indonesia Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vale Indonesia for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vale Indonesia Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Vale Indonesia Tbk appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 83.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Vale Indonesia Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vale Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vale Indonesia's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vale Indonesia's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 9.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 510.9 M |
Vale Indonesia Technical Analysis
Vale Indonesia's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vale Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vale Indonesia Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vale Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vale Indonesia Predictive Forecast Models
Vale Indonesia's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vale Indonesia's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vale Indonesia's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vale Indonesia Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vale Indonesia for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vale Indonesia Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Vale Indonesia Tbk appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 83.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Check out Vale Indonesia Backtesting, Vale Indonesia Valuation, Vale Indonesia Correlation, Vale Indonesia Hype Analysis, Vale Indonesia Volatility, Vale Indonesia History as well as Vale Indonesia Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Complementary Tools for Vale Stock analysis
When running Vale Indonesia's price analysis, check to measure Vale Indonesia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vale Indonesia is operating at the current time. Most of Vale Indonesia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vale Indonesia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vale Indonesia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vale Indonesia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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