Fat Brands Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.98
| FATBB Stock | USD 5.14 0.19 3.56% |
FAT |
FAT Brands Target Price Odds to finish below 4.98
The tendency of FAT Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 4.98 or more in 90 days |
| 5.14 | 90 days | 4.98 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of FAT Brands to drop to $ 4.98 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This FAT Brands probability density function shows the probability of FAT Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of FAT Brands price to stay between $ 4.98 and its current price of $5.14 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.33 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon FAT Brands has a beta of -0.58. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding FAT Brands are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, FAT Brands is likely to outperform the market. Additionally FAT Brands has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. FAT Brands Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for FAT Brands
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FAT Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FAT Brands' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
FAT Brands Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. FAT Brands is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the FAT Brands' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold FAT Brands, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of FAT Brands within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.31 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.58 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.61 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
FAT Brands Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of FAT Brands for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for FAT Brands can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| FAT Brands generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| FAT Brands has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| FAT Brands has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company has accumulated 1.38 B in total debt. FAT Brands has a current ratio of 0.4, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist FAT Brands until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, FAT Brands' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like FAT Brands sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for FAT to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about FAT Brands' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 480.46 M. Net Loss for the year was (90.11 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 140.99 M. | |
| FAT Brands has accumulated about 23.91 M in cash with (35.61 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.44. | |
| Roughly 64.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
FAT Brands Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of FAT Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential FAT Brands' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FAT Brands' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 37 M |
FAT Brands Technical Analysis
FAT Brands' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. FAT Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of FAT Brands. In general, you should focus on analyzing FAT Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
FAT Brands Predictive Forecast Models
FAT Brands' time-series forecasting models is one of many FAT Brands' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary FAT Brands' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about FAT Brands
Checking the ongoing alerts about FAT Brands for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for FAT Brands help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| FAT Brands generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| FAT Brands has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| FAT Brands has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company has accumulated 1.38 B in total debt. FAT Brands has a current ratio of 0.4, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist FAT Brands until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, FAT Brands' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like FAT Brands sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for FAT to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about FAT Brands' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 480.46 M. Net Loss for the year was (90.11 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 140.99 M. | |
| FAT Brands has accumulated about 23.91 M in cash with (35.61 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.44. | |
| Roughly 64.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Check out FAT Brands Backtesting, FAT Brands Valuation, FAT Brands Correlation, FAT Brands Hype Analysis, FAT Brands Volatility, FAT Brands History as well as FAT Brands Performance. For information on how to trade FAT Stock refer to our How to Trade FAT Stock guide.Note that the FAT Brands information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other FAT Brands' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for FAT Stock analysis
When running FAT Brands' price analysis, check to measure FAT Brands' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FAT Brands is operating at the current time. Most of FAT Brands' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FAT Brands' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FAT Brands' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FAT Brands to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is FAT Brands' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FAT Brands. If investors know FAT will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FAT Brands listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of FAT Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FAT that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FAT Brands' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FAT Brands' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FAT Brands' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FAT Brands' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FAT Brands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FAT Brands is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FAT Brands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.