Amcon Distributing Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 161.0
| DIT Stock | USD 157.90 5.48 3.35% |
AMCON |
AMCON Distributing Target Price Odds to finish over 161.0
The tendency of AMCON Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 161.00 or more in 90 days |
| 157.90 | 90 days | 161.00 | under 95 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AMCON Distributing to move over $ 161.00 or more in 90 days from now is under 95 (This AMCON Distributing probability density function shows the probability of AMCON Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AMCON Distributing price to stay between its current price of $ 157.90 and $ 161.00 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.03 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon AMCON Distributing has a beta of -0.76 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding AMCON Distributing are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, AMCON Distributing is likely to outperform the market. Additionally AMCON Distributing has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. AMCON Distributing Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AMCON Distributing
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AMCON Distributing. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AMCON Distributing's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AMCON Distributing Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AMCON Distributing is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AMCON Distributing's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AMCON Distributing, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AMCON Distributing within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.25 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.76 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 14.82 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
AMCON Distributing Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AMCON Distributing for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AMCON Distributing can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AMCON Distributing generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 73.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
AMCON Distributing Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AMCON Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AMCON Distributing's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AMCON Distributing's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 595.9 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 790.9 K |
AMCON Distributing Technical Analysis
AMCON Distributing's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AMCON Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AMCON Distributing. In general, you should focus on analyzing AMCON Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AMCON Distributing Predictive Forecast Models
AMCON Distributing's time-series forecasting models is one of many AMCON Distributing's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AMCON Distributing's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AMCON Distributing
Checking the ongoing alerts about AMCON Distributing for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AMCON Distributing help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AMCON Distributing generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 73.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Check out AMCON Distributing Backtesting, AMCON Distributing Valuation, AMCON Distributing Correlation, AMCON Distributing Hype Analysis, AMCON Distributing Volatility, AMCON Distributing History as well as AMCON Distributing Performance. For more information on how to buy AMCON Stock please use our How to Invest in AMCON Distributing guide.You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Complementary Tools for AMCON Stock analysis
When running AMCON Distributing's price analysis, check to measure AMCON Distributing's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AMCON Distributing is operating at the current time. Most of AMCON Distributing's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AMCON Distributing's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AMCON Distributing's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AMCON Distributing to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AMCON Distributing's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AMCON Distributing. If investors know AMCON will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AMCON Distributing listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of AMCON Distributing is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AMCON that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AMCON Distributing's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AMCON Distributing's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AMCON Distributing's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AMCON Distributing's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AMCON Distributing's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AMCON Distributing is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AMCON Distributing's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.