Discover Financial Services Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 119.07
| DFS Stock | USD 122.81 1.50 1.21% |
Discover |
Discover Financial Target Price Odds to finish below 119.07
The tendency of Discover Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 119.07 or more in 90 days |
| 122.81 | 90 days | 119.07 | nearly 4.31 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Discover Financial to drop to $ 119.07 or more in 90 days from now is nearly 4.31 (This Discover Financial Services probability density function shows the probability of Discover Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Discover Financial price to stay between $ 119.07 and its current price of $122.81 at the end of the 90-day period is about 33.89 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.22 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Discover Financial will likely underperform. Additionally Discover Financial Services has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Discover Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Discover Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Discover Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Discover Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Discover Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Discover Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Discover Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Discover Financial Services, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Discover Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.22 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.66 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Discover Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Discover Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Discover Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Discover Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Discover Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Discover Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Discover Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 254 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.8 B |
Discover Financial Technical Analysis
Discover Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Discover Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Discover Financial Services. In general, you should focus on analyzing Discover Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Discover Financial Predictive Forecast Models
Discover Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Discover Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Discover Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Discover Financial
Checking the ongoing alerts about Discover Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Discover Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Check out Discover Financial Backtesting, Discover Financial Valuation, Discover Financial Correlation, Discover Financial Hype Analysis, Discover Financial Volatility, Discover Financial History as well as Discover Financial Performance. Note that the Discover Financial information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Discover Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Complementary Tools for Discover Stock analysis
When running Discover Financial's price analysis, check to measure Discover Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Discover Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Discover Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Discover Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Discover Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Discover Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Portfolio File Import Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format | |
| Instant Ratings Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Crypto Correlations Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins | |
| Money Managers Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world | |
| Equity Valuation Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data | |
| Idea Breakdown Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes | |
| Share Portfolio Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device | |
| Bond Analysis Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios. | |
| Top Crypto Exchanges Search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges | |
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| Aroon Oscillator Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios |
Is Discover Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Discover Financial. If investors know Discover will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Discover Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Discover Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Discover that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Discover Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Discover Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Discover Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Discover Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Discover Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Discover Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Discover Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.