Commercial Vehicle Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.12
| CVGI Stock | USD 5.15 0.01 0.19% |
Closest to current price Commercial long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Commercial |
Commercial Vehicle Target Price Odds to finish below 3.12
The tendency of Commercial Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 3.12 or more in 90 days |
| 5.15 | 90 days | 3.12 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Commercial Vehicle to drop to $ 3.12 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Commercial Vehicle Group probability density function shows the probability of Commercial Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Commercial Vehicle price to stay between $ 3.12 and its current price of $5.15 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.04 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Commercial Vehicle has a beta of 0.87 suggesting Commercial Vehicle Group market returns are responsive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Commercial Vehicle is expected to follow. Additionally Commercial Vehicle Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Commercial Vehicle Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Commercial Vehicle
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commercial Vehicle. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Commercial Vehicle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Commercial Vehicle Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Commercial Vehicle is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Commercial Vehicle's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Commercial Vehicle Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Commercial Vehicle within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.44 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.87 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.2 |
Commercial Vehicle Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Commercial Vehicle for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Commercial Vehicle can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Commercial Vehicle generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Commercial Vehicle has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 78.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: US proposes to ease restrictions on marijuana |
Commercial Vehicle Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Commercial Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Commercial Vehicle's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Commercial Vehicle's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 33.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 37.8 M |
Commercial Vehicle Technical Analysis
Commercial Vehicle's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Commercial Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Commercial Vehicle Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Commercial Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Commercial Vehicle Predictive Forecast Models
Commercial Vehicle's time-series forecasting models is one of many Commercial Vehicle's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Commercial Vehicle's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Commercial Vehicle
Checking the ongoing alerts about Commercial Vehicle for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Commercial Vehicle help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Commercial Vehicle generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Commercial Vehicle has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 78.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: US proposes to ease restrictions on marijuana |
Check out Commercial Vehicle Backtesting, Commercial Vehicle Valuation, Commercial Vehicle Correlation, Commercial Vehicle Hype Analysis, Commercial Vehicle Volatility, Commercial Vehicle History as well as Commercial Vehicle Performance. Note that the Commercial Vehicle information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Commercial Vehicle's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for Commercial Stock analysis
When running Commercial Vehicle's price analysis, check to measure Commercial Vehicle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Commercial Vehicle is operating at the current time. Most of Commercial Vehicle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Commercial Vehicle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Commercial Vehicle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Commercial Vehicle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Commercial Vehicle's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Commercial Vehicle. If investors know Commercial will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Commercial Vehicle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.66) | Earnings Share 1.3 | Revenue Per Share 29.077 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.12) | Return On Assets 0.0536 |
The market value of Commercial Vehicle is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Commercial that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Commercial Vehicle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Commercial Vehicle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Commercial Vehicle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Commercial Vehicle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Commercial Vehicle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Commercial Vehicle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Commercial Vehicle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.