Commercial Vehicle Group Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

CVGI Stock  USD 6.43  0.01  0.16%   
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your conservative attitude towards risk, our recommendation regarding Commercial Vehicle Group is 'Strong Sell'. Macroaxis provides Commercial Vehicle buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding CVGI positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Commercial Vehicle's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Commercial Vehicle's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
6.46
Target Price
12.5
Hype Value
6.43
Market Value
6.43
Naive Value
6.6
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Commercial Vehicle Group given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Commercial Vehicle. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Commercial Vehicle Group, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Commercial Vehicle Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Commercial and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Commercial Vehicle Group. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price.

Execute Commercial Vehicle Buy or Sell Advice

The Commercial recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Commercial Vehicle Group. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Commercial Vehicle Group or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Commercial Vehicle's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Commercial VehicleBuy Commercial Vehicle
Strong Sell

Market Performance

Very WeakDetails

Volatility

Somewhat reliableDetails

Hype Condition

StaleDetails

Current Valuation

Fairly ValuedDetails

Odds Of Distress

LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Hyperactively responds to market trendsDetails

Investor Sentiment

AlarmedDetails

Analyst Consensus

Strong BuyDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

UnavailableDetails
For the selected time horizon Commercial Vehicle Group has a Mean Deviation of 1.88, Standard Deviation of 2.45 and Variance of 5.99
We provide trade advice to complement the prevailing expert consensus on Commercial Vehicle. Our dynamic recommendation engine uses a multidimensional algorithm to analyze the company's potential to grow using all technical and fundamental data available at the time. To make sure Commercial Vehicle is not overpriced, please confirm all Commercial Vehicle fundamentals, including its cash and equivalents, earnings per share, and the relationship between the revenue and current ratio . Given that Commercial Vehicle has a price to earning of 13.57 X, we suggest you to validate Commercial Vehicle Group market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Commercial Vehicle Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Commercial Vehicle generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Constellation wins hard seltzer battle over AB InBev

Commercial Vehicle Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Commercial Vehicle's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Commercial Vehicle's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Commercial Vehicle daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Commercial Vehicle Group price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Commercial Vehicle returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Commercial Vehicle.
Mean Return
-0.12
Value At Risk
-4.43
Potential Upside
3.59
Standard Deviation
2.45
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Commercial Vehicle historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Commercial Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Commercial Vehicle is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Commercial Vehicle Group backward and forwards among themselves. Commercial Vehicle's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Commercial Vehicle's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
American Century Companies Inc2023-12-31
535.1 K
Ironwood Investment Management Llc2023-12-31
497 K
Hillsdale Investment Management Inc.2023-12-31
455.3 K
Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts2023-12-31
452.8 K
Franklin Resources Inc2023-12-31
426.6 K
Rbf Llc2023-12-31
400.1 K
Wellington Management Company Llp2023-12-31
392.7 K
D. E. Shaw & Co Lp2023-09-30
361.5 K
Black Diamond Capital Management Llc2023-12-31
350 K
Forager Capital Management, Llc2023-12-31
3.1 M
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
2.4 M
Note, although Commercial Vehicle's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Commercial Vehicle Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change In Cash(31.4M)11.0M(15.5M)(3.1M)6.0M6.3M
Free Cash Flow12.7M27.2M(47.5M)49.2M18.6M10.7M
Depreciation15.5M18.5M18.5M18.2M17.6M15.9M
Other Non Cash Items10.2M36.7M9.6M14.3M2.7M2.6M
Capital Expenditures24.0M7.1M17.7M19.7M19.7M14.8M
Net Income15.8M(37.0M)23.7M(22.0M)49.4M51.9M
End Period Cash Flow39.5M50.5M35.0M31.8M37.8M47.0M
Change To Inventory9.5M(6.8M)(50.3M)(3.7M)15M15.8M
Change Receivables(35.7M)12.0M(23.6M)19.2M22.0M23.2M
Net Borrowings(8.7M)(14.4M)190.3M(43.8M)(50.4M)(47.8M)
Change To Netincome13.2M26.1M17.0M19.2M22.0M11.3M
Investments(58.0M)(6.4M)(17.6M)(19.7M)(22.4M)(23.5M)

Commercial Vehicle Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Commercial Vehicle or Machinery sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Commercial Vehicle's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Commercial stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.43
β
Beta against NYSE Composite2.36
σ
Overall volatility
2.52
Ir
Information ratio -0.11

Commercial Vehicle Volatility Alert

Commercial Vehicle Group exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.62 and kurtosis of 0.96. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Commercial Vehicle's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Commercial Vehicle's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Commercial Vehicle Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Commercial Vehicle's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Commercial Vehicle's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Commercial Vehicle and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Commercial Vehicle or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Commercial Vehicle's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Commercial Vehicle by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Commercial Vehicle to competition
FundamentalsCommercial VehiclePeer Average
Return On Equity0.34-0.31
Return On Asset0.0647-0.14
Profit Margin0.05 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.03 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation353.55 M16.62 B
Shares Outstanding33.9 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders6.51 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions78.81 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted475.09 K4.71 M
Price To Earning13.57 X28.72 X
Price To Book1.26 X9.51 X
Price To Sales0.22 X11.42 X
Revenue994.68 M9.43 B
Gross Profit86.5 M27.38 B
EBITDA73.31 M3.9 B
Net Income49.41 M570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents28.5 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share0.85 X5.01 X
Total Debt173.65 M5.32 B
Debt To Equity1.77 %48.70 %
Current Ratio2.16 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share5.54 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations38.28 M971.22 M
Short Ratio3.13 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share1.47 X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth0.35 X4.89 X
Target Price11.0
Number Of Employees7.7 K18.84 K
Beta2.73-0.15
Market Capitalization217.97 M19.03 B
Total Asset483.21 M29.47 B
Retained Earnings(46.18 M)9.33 B
Working Capital182.55 M1.48 B
Note: Payment of 5596 shares by Richard Tajer of Commercial Vehicle subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Commercial Vehicle Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Commercial . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Commercial Vehicle Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Commercial Vehicle Group? Buying financial instruments such as Commercial Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Total Stockholder Equity126.7M120.0M172.9M102.9M
Total Assets507.7M470.3M483.2M445.5M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Commercial Vehicle in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Small Value Funds
Small Value Funds Theme
Funds or Etfs that invest in the undervalued stocks of small to mid-sized companies. The Small Value Funds theme has 37 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Small Value Funds Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether Commercial Vehicle offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Commercial Vehicle's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Commercial Vehicle Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Commercial Vehicle Group Stock:
Check out Commercial Vehicle Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
Note that the Commercial Vehicle information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Commercial Vehicle's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

Complementary Tools for Commercial Stock analysis

When running Commercial Vehicle's price analysis, check to measure Commercial Vehicle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Commercial Vehicle is operating at the current time. Most of Commercial Vehicle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Commercial Vehicle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Commercial Vehicle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Commercial Vehicle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Commercial Vehicle's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Commercial Vehicle. If investors know Commercial will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Commercial Vehicle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.011
Earnings Share
1.47
Revenue Per Share
30.105
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.05)
Return On Assets
0.0647
The market value of Commercial Vehicle is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Commercial that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Commercial Vehicle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Commercial Vehicle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Commercial Vehicle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Commercial Vehicle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Commercial Vehicle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Commercial Vehicle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Commercial Vehicle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.