Natura City (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 50.00
| CITY Stock | 50.00 0.00 0.00% |
Natura |
Natura City Target Price Odds to finish over 50.00
The tendency of Natura Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 50.00 | 90 days | 50.00 | about 87.38 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Natura City to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 87.38 (This Natura City Developments probability density function shows the probability of Natura Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Natura City has a beta of 0.42 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Natura City average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Natura City Developments will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Natura City Developments has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Natura City Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Natura City
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natura City Developments. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Natura City's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Natura City Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Natura City is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Natura City's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Natura City Developments, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Natura City within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.29 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.42 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.18 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.18 |
Natura City Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Natura City for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Natura City Developments can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Natura City generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Natura City has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 61.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Natura City Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Natura Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Natura City's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Natura City's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.4 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 32.4 B |
Natura City Technical Analysis
Natura City's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Natura Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Natura City Developments. In general, you should focus on analyzing Natura Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Natura City Predictive Forecast Models
Natura City's time-series forecasting models is one of many Natura City's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Natura City's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Natura City Developments
Checking the ongoing alerts about Natura City for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Natura City Developments help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Natura City generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Natura City has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 61.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Check out Natura City Backtesting, Natura City Valuation, Natura City Correlation, Natura City Hype Analysis, Natura City Volatility, Natura City History as well as Natura City Performance. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Complementary Tools for Natura Stock analysis
When running Natura City's price analysis, check to measure Natura City's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natura City is operating at the current time. Most of Natura City's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natura City's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natura City's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natura City to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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