Balchem Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 154.70
| BCPC Stock | USD 154.70 1.10 0.72% |
Closest to current price Balchem long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Balchem |
Balchem Target Price Odds to finish over 154.70
The tendency of Balchem Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 154.70 | 90 days | 154.70 | about 28.84 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Balchem to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 28.84 (This Balchem probability density function shows the probability of Balchem Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Balchem has a beta of 0.29 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Balchem average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Balchem will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Balchem has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Balchem Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Balchem
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Balchem. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Balchem's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Balchem Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Balchem is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Balchem's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Balchem, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Balchem within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Balchem Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Balchem for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Balchem can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Balchem generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Balchem has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Warning BCPC is at high risk of performing badly |
Balchem Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Balchem Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Balchem's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Balchem's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 32.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 64.4 M |
Balchem Technical Analysis
Balchem's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Balchem Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Balchem. In general, you should focus on analyzing Balchem Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Balchem Predictive Forecast Models
Balchem's time-series forecasting models is one of many Balchem's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Balchem's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Balchem
Checking the ongoing alerts about Balchem for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Balchem help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Balchem generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Balchem has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Warning BCPC is at high risk of performing badly |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Balchem Stock
When determining whether Balchem offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Balchem's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Balchem Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Balchem Stock:Check out Balchem Backtesting, Balchem Valuation, Balchem Correlation, Balchem Hype Analysis, Balchem Volatility, Balchem History as well as Balchem Performance. For information on how to trade Balchem Stock refer to our How to Trade Balchem Stock guide.You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Is Specialty Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Balchem. If investors know Balchem will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Balchem listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.271 | Dividend Share 0.79 | Earnings Share 3.53 | Revenue Per Share 28.912 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.031 |
The market value of Balchem is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Balchem that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Balchem's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Balchem's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Balchem's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Balchem's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Balchem's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Balchem is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Balchem's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.