Aspen Aerogels Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 29.92
| ASPN Stock | USD 29.92 0.42 1.42% |
Closest to current price Aspen long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Aspen |
Aspen Aerogels Target Price Odds to finish over 29.92
The tendency of Aspen Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 29.92 | 90 days | 29.92 | roughly 2.56 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aspen Aerogels to move above the current price in 90 days from now is roughly 2.56 (This Aspen Aerogels probability density function shows the probability of Aspen Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 4.48 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Aspen Aerogels will likely underperform. Additionally Aspen Aerogels has an alpha of 0.9239, implying that it can generate a 0.92 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aspen Aerogels Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aspen Aerogels
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aspen Aerogels. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aspen Aerogels' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aspen Aerogels Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aspen Aerogels is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aspen Aerogels' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aspen Aerogels, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aspen Aerogels within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.92 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 4.48 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.20 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
Aspen Aerogels Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aspen Aerogels for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aspen Aerogels can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aspen Aerogels is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Aspen Aerogels appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 238.72 M. Net Loss for the year was (45.81 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.98 M. | |
| Aspen Aerogels currently holds about 102.4 M in cash with (42.61 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.59. | |
| Aspen Aerogels has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Aspen Aerogels CEO sells over 12m in company stock |
Aspen Aerogels Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aspen Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aspen Aerogels' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aspen Aerogels' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 69.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 140 M |
Aspen Aerogels Technical Analysis
Aspen Aerogels' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aspen Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aspen Aerogels. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aspen Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aspen Aerogels Predictive Forecast Models
Aspen Aerogels' time-series forecasting models is one of many Aspen Aerogels' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aspen Aerogels' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aspen Aerogels
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aspen Aerogels for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aspen Aerogels help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aspen Aerogels is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Aspen Aerogels appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 238.72 M. Net Loss for the year was (45.81 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.98 M. | |
| Aspen Aerogels currently holds about 102.4 M in cash with (42.61 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.59. | |
| Aspen Aerogels has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Aspen Aerogels CEO sells over 12m in company stock |
Check out Aspen Aerogels Backtesting, Aspen Aerogels Valuation, Aspen Aerogels Correlation, Aspen Aerogels Hype Analysis, Aspen Aerogels Volatility, Aspen Aerogels History as well as Aspen Aerogels Performance. To learn how to invest in Aspen Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aspen Aerogels guide.You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Aspen Stock analysis
When running Aspen Aerogels' price analysis, check to measure Aspen Aerogels' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aspen Aerogels is operating at the current time. Most of Aspen Aerogels' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aspen Aerogels' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aspen Aerogels' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aspen Aerogels to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aspen Aerogels' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aspen Aerogels. If investors know Aspen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aspen Aerogels listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.44) | Revenue Per Share 4.046 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.073 | Return On Assets (0.02) | Return On Equity (0.07) |
The market value of Aspen Aerogels is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aspen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aspen Aerogels' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aspen Aerogels' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aspen Aerogels' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aspen Aerogels' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aspen Aerogels' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aspen Aerogels is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aspen Aerogels' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.