Astra International (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4910.0
| ASII Stock | IDR 5,125 75.00 1.49% |
Astra |
Astra International Target Price Odds to finish below 4910.0
The tendency of Astra Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 4,910 or more in 90 days |
| 5,125 | 90 days | 4,910 | about 1.25 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Astra International to drop to 4,910 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.25 (This Astra International Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Astra Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Astra International Tbk price to stay between 4,910 and its current price of 5125.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 35.43 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Astra International Tbk has a beta of -0.16. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Astra International are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Astra International Tbk is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Astra International Tbk has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Astra International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Astra International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astra International Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Astra International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Astra International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Astra International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Astra International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Astra International Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Astra International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 113.76 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Astra International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Astra International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Astra International Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Astra International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 50.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Astra International Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Astra Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Astra International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Astra International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 40.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 64.6 T |
Astra International Technical Analysis
Astra International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Astra Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Astra International Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Astra Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Astra International Predictive Forecast Models
Astra International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Astra International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Astra International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Astra International Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Astra International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Astra International Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Astra International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 50.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Check out Astra International Backtesting, Astra International Valuation, Astra International Correlation, Astra International Hype Analysis, Astra International Volatility, Astra International History as well as Astra International Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Complementary Tools for Astra Stock analysis
When running Astra International's price analysis, check to measure Astra International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Astra International is operating at the current time. Most of Astra International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Astra International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Astra International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Astra International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Instant Ratings Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Portfolio Holdings Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing | |
| Competition Analyzer Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities | |
| Aroon Oscillator Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios | |
| Global Markets Map Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes | |
| Portfolio Comparator Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account | |
| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum | |
| Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk | |
| Price Exposure Probability Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets | |
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences |