Astra International Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ASII Stock | IDR 4,710 10.00 0.21% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Astra International Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 4,710 with a mean absolute deviation of 60.74 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,645. Astra Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Astra International stock prices and determine the direction of Astra International Tbk's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Astra International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astra International to cross-verify your projections. Astra |
Most investors in Astra International cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Astra International's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Astra International's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Astra International simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Astra International Tbk are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Astra International Tbk prices get older. Astra International Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Astra International Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 4,710 with a mean absolute deviation of 60.74, mean absolute percentage error of 5,466, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,645.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Astra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Astra International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Astra International Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Astra International | Astra International Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Astra International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Astra International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Astra International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4,708 and 4,711, respectively. We have considered Astra International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Astra International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Astra International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.8789 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 3.4938 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 60.7437 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0129 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3644.6213 |
Predictive Modules for Astra International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astra International Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Astra International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Astra International
For every potential investor in Astra, whether a beginner or expert, Astra International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Astra Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Astra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Astra International's price trends.Astra International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Astra International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Astra International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Astra International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Astra International Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Astra International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Astra International's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Astra International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Astra International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Astra International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Astra International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Astra International Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 138873.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3333 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 4715.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 4713.33 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 10.0 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 33.09 |
Astra International Risk Indicators
The analysis of Astra International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Astra International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting astra stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Variance | 2.92 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.3 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.51) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Astra International Tbk using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.Build Optimal Portfolios
Align your risk with return expectations
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astra International to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Astra Stock analysis
When running Astra International's price analysis, check to measure Astra International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Astra International is operating at the current time. Most of Astra International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Astra International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Astra International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Astra International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Analyst Advice Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories | |
| Transaction History View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance | |
| Companies Directory Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals | |
| AI Portfolio Architect Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities | |
| Commodity Directory Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges | |
| Money Flow Index Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators | |
| Insider Screener Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance |