Alumindo Light (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 97.0
| ALMI Stock | IDR 73.00 2.00 2.67% |
Alumindo |
Alumindo Light Target Price Odds to finish over 97.0
The tendency of Alumindo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 97.00 or more in 90 days |
| 73.00 | 90 days | 97.00 | about 6.97 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alumindo Light to move over 97.00 or more in 90 days from now is about 6.97 (This Alumindo Light Metal probability density function shows the probability of Alumindo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alumindo Light Metal price to stay between its current price of 73.00 and 97.00 at the end of the 90-day period is about 73.13 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Alumindo Light Metal has a beta of -0.34. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Alumindo Light are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Alumindo Light Metal is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Alumindo Light Metal has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Alumindo Light Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alumindo Light
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alumindo Light Metal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alumindo Light's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alumindo Light Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alumindo Light is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alumindo Light's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alumindo Light Metal, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alumindo Light within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -1.21 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.34 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Alumindo Light Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alumindo Light for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alumindo Light Metal can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alumindo Light Metal is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Alumindo Light Metal appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 96.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Alumindo Light Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alumindo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alumindo Light's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alumindo Light's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.8 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.4 M |
Alumindo Light Technical Analysis
Alumindo Light's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alumindo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alumindo Light Metal. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alumindo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alumindo Light Predictive Forecast Models
Alumindo Light's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alumindo Light's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alumindo Light's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alumindo Light Metal
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alumindo Light for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alumindo Light Metal help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alumindo Light Metal is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Alumindo Light Metal appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 96.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Check out Alumindo Light Backtesting, Alumindo Light Valuation, Alumindo Light Correlation, Alumindo Light Hype Analysis, Alumindo Light Volatility, Alumindo Light History as well as Alumindo Light Performance. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Complementary Tools for Alumindo Stock analysis
When running Alumindo Light's price analysis, check to measure Alumindo Light's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alumindo Light is operating at the current time. Most of Alumindo Light's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alumindo Light's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alumindo Light's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alumindo Light to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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