American Electric Power Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 85.26
| AEP Stock | USD 85.26 1.60 1.84% |
Closest to current price American long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
American |
American Electric Target Price Odds to finish over 85.26
The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 85.26 | 90 days | 85.26 | about 13.75 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Electric to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 13.75 (This American Electric Power probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon American Electric has a beta of 0.88. This suggests American Electric Power market returns are sensible to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, American Electric is expected to follow. Additionally American Electric Power has an alpha of 0.1007, implying that it can generate a 0.1 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). American Electric Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for American Electric
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Electric Power. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Electric's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Electric Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Electric is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Electric's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Electric Power, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Electric within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.10 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.88 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
American Electric Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Electric for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Electric Power can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company has 43.61 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.57, which is OK given its current industry classification. American Electric Power has a current ratio of 0.77, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist American Electric until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, American Electric's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like American Electric Power sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for American to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about American Electric's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| American Electric has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 79.0% of American Electric shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 8th of March 2024 American Electric paid $ 0.88 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: UPDATE 1-CMS Energy posts higher first-quarter profit helped by robust demand, lower costs |
American Electric Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Electric's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Electric's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 520.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 544.4 M |
American Electric Technical Analysis
American Electric's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Electric Power. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
American Electric Predictive Forecast Models
American Electric's time-series forecasting models is one of many American Electric's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Electric's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about American Electric Power
Checking the ongoing alerts about American Electric for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Electric Power help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company has 43.61 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.57, which is OK given its current industry classification. American Electric Power has a current ratio of 0.77, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist American Electric until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, American Electric's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like American Electric Power sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for American to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about American Electric's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| American Electric has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 79.0% of American Electric shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 8th of March 2024 American Electric paid $ 0.88 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: UPDATE 1-CMS Energy posts higher first-quarter profit helped by robust demand, lower costs |
Check out American Electric Backtesting, American Electric Valuation, American Electric Correlation, American Electric Hype Analysis, American Electric Volatility, American Electric History as well as American Electric Performance. Note that the American Electric Power information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Electric's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Complementary Tools for American Stock analysis
When running American Electric's price analysis, check to measure American Electric's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Electric is operating at the current time. Most of American Electric's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Electric's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Electric's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Electric to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Electric's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Electric. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Electric listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.15) | Dividend Share 3.37 | Earnings Share 4.24 | Revenue Per Share 36.582 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
The market value of American Electric Power is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Electric's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Electric's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Electric's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Electric's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Electric's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Electric is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Electric's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.