Adagene Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.58
| ADAG Stock | USD 2.58 0.21 7.53% |
Adagene |
Adagene Target Price Odds to finish over 2.58
The tendency of Adagene Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 2.58 | 90 days | 2.58 | about 68.04 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Adagene to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 68.04 (This Adagene probability density function shows the probability of Adagene Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Adagene has a beta of -0.82. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Adagene are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Adagene is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Adagene has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Adagene Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Adagene
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Adagene. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Adagene's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Adagene Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Adagene is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Adagene's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Adagene, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Adagene within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.29 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.82 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Adagene Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Adagene for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Adagene can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Adagene generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Adagene has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Adagene has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 18.11 M. Net Loss for the year was (18.95 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 10.18 M. | |
| Adagene currently holds about 168.04 M in cash with (28.45 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.87, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Adagene has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from benzinga.com: Adagene to Present at Investor Conferences in June |
Adagene Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Adagene Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Adagene's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Adagene's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 43.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 109.9 M |
Adagene Technical Analysis
Adagene's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Adagene Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Adagene. In general, you should focus on analyzing Adagene Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Adagene Predictive Forecast Models
Adagene's time-series forecasting models is one of many Adagene's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Adagene's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Adagene
Checking the ongoing alerts about Adagene for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Adagene help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Adagene generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Adagene has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Adagene has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 18.11 M. Net Loss for the year was (18.95 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 10.18 M. | |
| Adagene currently holds about 168.04 M in cash with (28.45 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.87, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Adagene has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from benzinga.com: Adagene to Present at Investor Conferences in June |
Check out Adagene Backtesting, Adagene Valuation, Adagene Correlation, Adagene Hype Analysis, Adagene Volatility, Adagene History as well as Adagene Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Adagene Stock please use our How to Invest in Adagene guide.Note that the Adagene information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Adagene's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Complementary Tools for Adagene Stock analysis
When running Adagene's price analysis, check to measure Adagene's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Adagene is operating at the current time. Most of Adagene's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Adagene's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Adagene's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Adagene to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Adagene's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Adagene. If investors know Adagene will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Adagene listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.44) | Revenue Per Share 0.414 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.85) | Return On Assets (0.11) | Return On Equity (0.25) |
The market value of Adagene is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Adagene that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Adagene's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Adagene's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Adagene's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Adagene's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Adagene's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Adagene is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Adagene's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.