ABERFORTH SMCOS (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 17.90
| 0KJ Stock | EUR 17.90 0.10 0.56% |
ABERFORTH |
ABERFORTH SMCOS Target Price Odds to finish over 17.90
The tendency of ABERFORTH Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 17.90 | 90 days | 17.90 | nearly 4.01 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ABERFORTH SMCOS to move above the current price in 90 days from now is nearly 4.01 (This ABERFORTH SMCOS TRLS 01 probability density function shows the probability of ABERFORTH Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon ABERFORTH SMCOS TRLS 01 has a beta of -0.42. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding ABERFORTH SMCOS are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, ABERFORTH SMCOS TRLS 01 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally ABERFORTH SMCOS TRLS 01 has an alpha of 0.2853, implying that it can generate a 0.29 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ABERFORTH SMCOS Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ABERFORTH SMCOS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ABERFORTH SMCOS TRLS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ABERFORTH SMCOS's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ABERFORTH SMCOS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ABERFORTH SMCOS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ABERFORTH SMCOS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ABERFORTH SMCOS TRLS 01, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ABERFORTH SMCOS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.29 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.42 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.92 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.22 |
ABERFORTH SMCOS Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ABERFORTH Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ABERFORTH SMCOS's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ABERFORTH SMCOS's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.34 | |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 1.92% |
ABERFORTH SMCOS Technical Analysis
ABERFORTH SMCOS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ABERFORTH Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ABERFORTH SMCOS TRLS 01. In general, you should focus on analyzing ABERFORTH Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ABERFORTH SMCOS Predictive Forecast Models
ABERFORTH SMCOS's time-series forecasting models is one of many ABERFORTH SMCOS's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ABERFORTH SMCOS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ABERFORTH SMCOS in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ABERFORTH SMCOS's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ABERFORTH SMCOS options trading.
Other Information on Investing in ABERFORTH Stock
ABERFORTH SMCOS financial ratios help investors to determine whether ABERFORTH Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ABERFORTH with respect to the benefits of owning ABERFORTH SMCOS security.