Xinyuan Real Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

XIN Stock  USD 2.83  0.01  0.35%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Xinyuan Real Estate on the next trading day is expected to be 3.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.67. Xinyuan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Xinyuan Real's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Xinyuan Real's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Xinyuan Real fundamentals over time.
  
As of the 9th of June 2024, Inventory Turnover is likely to drop to 0.19. In addition to that, Payables Turnover is likely to drop to 0.62. As of the 9th of June 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 6.8 M, though Net Loss is likely to grow to (225.2 M).
Most investors in Xinyuan Real cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Xinyuan Real's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Xinyuan Real's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Xinyuan Real polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Xinyuan Real Estate as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Xinyuan Real Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 10th of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Xinyuan Real Estate on the next trading day is expected to be 3.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.67.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Xinyuan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Xinyuan Real's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Xinyuan Real Stock Forecast Pattern

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Xinyuan Real Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Xinyuan Real's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Xinyuan Real's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 8.73, respectively. We have considered Xinyuan Real's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.83
3.01
Expected Value
8.73
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Xinyuan Real stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Xinyuan Real stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.571
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1912
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0634
SAESum of the absolute errors11.6662
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Xinyuan Real historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Xinyuan Real

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Xinyuan Real Estate. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Xinyuan Real's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.142.828.54
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.112.298.01
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Xinyuan Real. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Xinyuan Real's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Xinyuan Real's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Xinyuan Real Estate.

Other Forecasting Options for Xinyuan Real

For every potential investor in Xinyuan, whether a beginner or expert, Xinyuan Real's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Xinyuan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Xinyuan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Xinyuan Real's price trends.

Xinyuan Real Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Xinyuan Real stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Xinyuan Real could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Xinyuan Real by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Xinyuan Real Estate Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Xinyuan Real's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Xinyuan Real's current price.

Xinyuan Real Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Xinyuan Real stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Xinyuan Real shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Xinyuan Real stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Xinyuan Real Estate entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Xinyuan Real Risk Indicators

The analysis of Xinyuan Real's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Xinyuan Real's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting xinyuan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Xinyuan Stock

When determining whether Xinyuan Real Estate offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Xinyuan Real's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Xinyuan Real Estate Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Xinyuan Real Estate Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Xinyuan Real to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Is Real Estate Management & Development space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Xinyuan Real. If investors know Xinyuan will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Xinyuan Real listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
4.927
Earnings Share
7.6
Revenue Per Share
150.905
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.63)
Return On Assets
0.0054
The market value of Xinyuan Real Estate is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Xinyuan that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Xinyuan Real's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Xinyuan Real's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Xinyuan Real's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Xinyuan Real's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Xinyuan Real's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Xinyuan Real is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Xinyuan Real's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.