Vulcan Materials Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| VMC Stock | USD 270.09 1.98 0.73% |
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Vulcan Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 262.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.96 and the sum of the absolute errors of 250.37. Vulcan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Vulcan Materials stock prices and determine the direction of Vulcan Materials's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Vulcan Materials' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vulcan Materials to cross-verify your projections. Vulcan |
Most investors in Vulcan Materials cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Vulcan Materials' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Vulcan Materials' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Vulcan Materials is based on a synthetically constructed Vulcan Materialsdaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Vulcan Materials 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 15th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Vulcan Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 262.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.96, mean absolute percentage error of 48.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 250.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vulcan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vulcan Materials' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Vulcan Materials Stock Forecast Pattern
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Vulcan Materials Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Vulcan Materials' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vulcan Materials' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 261.26 and 263.63, respectively. We have considered Vulcan Materials' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vulcan Materials stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vulcan Materials stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 87.0633 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1121 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.9611 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0225 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 250.3655 |
Predictive Modules for Vulcan Materials
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vulcan Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vulcan Materials' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Vulcan Materials
For every potential investor in Vulcan, whether a beginner or expert, Vulcan Materials' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vulcan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vulcan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vulcan Materials' price trends.Vulcan Materials Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vulcan Materials stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vulcan Materials could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vulcan Materials by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vulcan Materials Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vulcan Materials' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vulcan Materials' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Vulcan Materials Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vulcan Materials stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vulcan Materials shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vulcan Materials stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vulcan Materials entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 5149.62 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.52) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 271.02 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 270.71 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.92) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.98) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 58.54 |
Vulcan Materials Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vulcan Materials' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vulcan Materials' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vulcan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9234 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7698 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Variance | 1.39 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.0 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.5927 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.00) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Vulcan Materials Investors Sentiment
The influence of Vulcan Materials' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Vulcan. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Vulcan Materials' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Vulcan. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Vulcan can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Vulcan Materials. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Vulcan Materials' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Vulcan Materials' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Vulcan Materials' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Vulcan Materials.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Vulcan Materials in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Vulcan Materials' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Vulcan Materials options trading.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Vulcan Materials offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Vulcan Materials' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Vulcan Materials Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Vulcan Materials Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vulcan Materials to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Vulcan Stock refer to our How to Trade Vulcan Stock guide.You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Vulcan Stock analysis
When running Vulcan Materials' price analysis, check to measure Vulcan Materials' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vulcan Materials is operating at the current time. Most of Vulcan Materials' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vulcan Materials' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vulcan Materials' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vulcan Materials to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Vulcan Materials' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vulcan Materials. If investors know Vulcan will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vulcan Materials listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Vulcan Materials is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vulcan that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vulcan Materials' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vulcan Materials' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vulcan Materials' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vulcan Materials' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vulcan Materials' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vulcan Materials is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vulcan Materials' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.