United Therapeutics Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| UTHR Stock | USD 277.50 2.31 0.84% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of United Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 275.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.84 and the sum of the absolute errors of 276.14. United Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast United Therapeutics stock prices and determine the direction of United Therapeutics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of United Therapeutics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although United Therapeutics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of United Therapeutics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of United Therapeutics fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. United |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 United Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast United Therapeutics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in United Therapeutics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for United Therapeutics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current United Therapeutics' open interest, investors have to compare it to United Therapeutics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of United Therapeutics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in United. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in United Therapeutics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the United Therapeutics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets United Therapeutics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for United Therapeutics is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. United Therapeutics 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 23rd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of United Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 275.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.84, mean absolute percentage error of 43.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 276.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict United Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that United Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
United Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
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United Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting United Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. United Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 273.47 and 277.34, respectively. We have considered United Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of United Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent United Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.5343 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -2.0757 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.8445 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0197 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 276.135 |
Predictive Modules for United Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of United Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for United Therapeutics
For every potential investor in United, whether a beginner or expert, United Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. United Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in United. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying United Therapeutics' price trends.United Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with United Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of United Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing United Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
United Therapeutics Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of United Therapeutics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of United Therapeutics' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
United Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how United Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading United Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying United Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify United Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 277.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 277.5 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.16 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.31 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 58.57 |
United Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of United Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in United Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting united stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Variance | 3.66 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.72 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.54 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in United Stock, please use our How to Invest in United Therapeutics guide.Note that the United Therapeutics information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other United Therapeutics' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Complementary Tools for United Stock analysis
When running United Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure United Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of United Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is United Therapeutics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Therapeutics. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about United Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.27 | Earnings Share 21.16 | Revenue Per Share 53.184 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.337 | Return On Assets 0.1225 |
The market value of United Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of United that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of United Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is United Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because United Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect United Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if United Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.