Tillys Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TLYS Stock | USD 5.62 0.18 3.10% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tillys Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 5.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.88. Tillys Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Tillys stock prices and determine the direction of Tillys Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Tillys' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Tillys' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Tillys' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Tillys fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tillys to cross-verify your projections. Tillys |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Tillys Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Tillys' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Tillys' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Tillys stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Tillys' open interest, investors have to compare it to Tillys' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Tillys is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Tillys. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Tillys cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Tillys' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Tillys' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Tillys is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Tillys Inc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Tillys Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 9th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tillys Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 5.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tillys Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tillys' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Tillys Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Tillys | Tillys Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Tillys Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Tillys' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tillys' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.36 and 7.96, respectively. We have considered Tillys' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tillys stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tillys stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.5638 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1432 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.023 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.8794 |
Predictive Modules for Tillys
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tillys Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tillys' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Tillys
For every potential investor in Tillys, whether a beginner or expert, Tillys' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tillys Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tillys. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tillys' price trends.Tillys Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tillys stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tillys could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tillys by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tillys Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Tillys' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Tillys' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Tillys Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tillys stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tillys shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tillys stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Tillys Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 18324.53 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.37) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5.44 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5.5 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.095 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.18) |
Tillys Risk Indicators
The analysis of Tillys' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tillys' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tillys stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.25 | |||
| Variance | 5.06 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Tillys
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Tillys position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Tillys will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Tillys Stock
Moving against Tillys Stock
| 0.82 | LE | Lands End | PairCorr |
| 0.55 | BQ | Boqii Holding Limited | PairCorr |
| 0.45 | JD | JD Inc Adr | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | YJ | Yunji Inc Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Tillys could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Tillys when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Tillys - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Tillys Inc to buy it.
The correlation of Tillys is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Tillys moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Tillys Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Tillys can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Tillys Stock Analysis
When running Tillys' price analysis, check to measure Tillys' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tillys is operating at the current time. Most of Tillys' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tillys' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tillys' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tillys to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.