Timothy Large/mid-cap Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| TLVAX Fund | USD 24.52 0.15 0.62% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Timothy Largemid Cap Value on the next trading day is expected to be 24.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.33. Timothy Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Timothy Large/mid-cap stock prices and determine the direction of Timothy Largemid Cap Value's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Timothy Large/mid-cap's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Timothy Large/mid-cap to cross-verify your projections. Timothy |
Most investors in Timothy Large/mid-cap cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Timothy Large/mid-cap's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Timothy Large/mid-cap's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Timothy Large/mid-cap - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Timothy Large/mid-cap prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Timothy Large/mid-cap price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Timothy Large/mid-cap. Timothy Large/mid-cap Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Timothy Largemid Cap Value on the next trading day is expected to be 24.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Timothy Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Timothy Large/mid-cap's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Timothy Large/mid-cap Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Timothy Large/mid-cap Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Timothy Large/mid-cap's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Timothy Large/mid-cap's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.85 and 25.23, respectively. We have considered Timothy Large/mid-cap's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Timothy Large/mid-cap mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Timothy Large/mid-cap mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0162 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1411 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0059 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.3262 |
Predictive Modules for Timothy Large/mid-cap
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Timothy Large/mid-cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Timothy Large/mid-cap's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Timothy Large/mid-cap
For every potential investor in Timothy, whether a beginner or expert, Timothy Large/mid-cap's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Timothy Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Timothy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Timothy Large/mid-cap's price trends.Timothy Large/mid-cap Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Timothy Large/mid-cap mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Timothy Large/mid-cap could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Timothy Large/mid-cap by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Timothy Large/mid-cap Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Timothy Large/mid-cap's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Timothy Large/mid-cap's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Timothy Large/mid-cap Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Timothy Large/mid-cap mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Timothy Large/mid-cap shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Timothy Large/mid-cap mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Timothy Largemid Cap Value entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 24.52 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 24.52 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.075 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.15 |
Timothy Large/mid-cap Risk Indicators
The analysis of Timothy Large/mid-cap's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Timothy Large/mid-cap's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting timothy mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5486 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6317 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6752 | |||
| Variance | 0.4559 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5576 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.399 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Timothy Large/mid-cap to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Timothy Large/mid-cap information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Timothy Large/mid-cap's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.