Telkom Indonesia Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TLK Stock | USD 19.47 0.12 0.62% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Telkom Indonesia Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 19.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.84. Telkom Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Telkom Indonesia stock prices and determine the direction of Telkom Indonesia Tbk's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Telkom Indonesia's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Telkom Indonesia's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Telkom Indonesia's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Telkom Indonesia fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Telkom Indonesia to cross-verify your projections. Telkom |
Most investors in Telkom Indonesia cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Telkom Indonesia's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Telkom Indonesia's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Telkom Indonesia is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Telkom Indonesia Tbk value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Telkom Indonesia Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Telkom Indonesia Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 19.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Telkom Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Telkom Indonesia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Telkom Indonesia Stock Forecast Pattern
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Telkom Indonesia Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Telkom Indonesia's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Telkom Indonesia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.55 and 21.13, respectively. We have considered Telkom Indonesia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Telkom Indonesia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Telkom Indonesia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.5726 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3745 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0159 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.8448 |
Predictive Modules for Telkom Indonesia
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Telkom Indonesia Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Telkom Indonesia's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Telkom Indonesia
For every potential investor in Telkom, whether a beginner or expert, Telkom Indonesia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Telkom Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Telkom. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Telkom Indonesia's price trends.Telkom Indonesia Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Telkom Indonesia stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Telkom Indonesia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Telkom Indonesia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Telkom Indonesia Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Telkom Indonesia's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Telkom Indonesia's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Telkom Indonesia Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Telkom Indonesia stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Telkom Indonesia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Telkom Indonesia stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Telkom Indonesia Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Telkom Indonesia Risk Indicators
The analysis of Telkom Indonesia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Telkom Indonesia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting telkom stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Variance | 1.68 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Telkom Indonesia to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Telkom Stock analysis
When running Telkom Indonesia's price analysis, check to measure Telkom Indonesia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Telkom Indonesia is operating at the current time. Most of Telkom Indonesia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Telkom Indonesia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Telkom Indonesia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Telkom Indonesia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Telkom Indonesia's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Telkom Indonesia. If investors know Telkom will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Telkom Indonesia listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.06) | Earnings Share 1.5 | Revenue Per Share 76 K | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.037 | Return On Assets 0.0999 |
The market value of Telkom Indonesia Tbk is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Telkom that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Telkom Indonesia's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Telkom Indonesia's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Telkom Indonesia's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Telkom Indonesia's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Telkom Indonesia's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Telkom Indonesia is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Telkom Indonesia's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.