Tokio Marine Pink Sheet Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for Tokio Marine - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Tokio Marine prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Tokio Marine price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Tokio Marine Holdings.

Tokio Marine Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tokio Marine Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 31.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.49.

Tokio Marine Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tokio Marine pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tokio Marine pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Tokio Marine observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Tokio Marine Holdings observations.

Predictive Modules for Tokio Marine

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tokio Marine Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 29.22 31.32 33.42 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 28.19 37.27 39.37 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 29.28 30.79 32.30 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Tokio Marine. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Tokio Marine's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Tokio Marine's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Tokio Marine Holdings.

Other Forecasting Options for Tokio Marine

For every potential investor in Tokio, whether a beginner or expert, Tokio Marine's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tokio Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tokio. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tokio Marine's price trends.

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Tokio Marine Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Tokio Marine's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Tokio Marine's current price.

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Intrinsic Valuation Details

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Technical Analysis Details

Please note, there is a significant difference between Tokio Marine's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Tokio Marine is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Tokio Marine's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.