Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SRAJ Stock | IDR 1,545 170.00 9.91% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 1,622 with a mean absolute deviation of 57.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,504. Sejahteraraya Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya stock prices and determine the direction of Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Tbk's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya to cross-verify your projections. Sejahteraraya |
Most investors in Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Tbk value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 1,622 with a mean absolute deviation of 57.45, mean absolute percentage error of 6,861, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,504.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sejahteraraya Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Stock Forecast Pattern
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Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,619 and 1,625, respectively. We have considered Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 126.9441 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 57.4483 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0501 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3504.3456 |
Predictive Modules for Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya
For every potential investor in Sejahteraraya, whether a beginner or expert, Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sejahteraraya Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sejahteraraya. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya's price trends.Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.9 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1545.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1545.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (85.00) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (170.00) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 55.47 |
Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sejahteraraya stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.47 | |||
| Variance | 29.94 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Complementary Tools for Sejahteraraya Stock analysis
When running Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya's price analysis, check to measure Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya is operating at the current time. Most of Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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