Golden Eagle Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SMMT Stock | IDR 730.00 20.00 2.67% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Golden Eagle Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 758.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 818.75. Golden Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Golden |
Most investors in Golden Eagle cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Golden Eagle's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Golden Eagle's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Golden Eagle is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Golden Eagle Energy value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Golden Eagle Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Golden Eagle Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 758.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.42, mean absolute percentage error of 282.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 818.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Golden Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Golden Eagle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Golden Eagle Stock Forecast Pattern
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Golden Eagle Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Golden Eagle's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Golden Eagle's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 757.11 and 760.31, respectively. We have considered Golden Eagle's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Golden Eagle stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Golden Eagle stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.7527 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 13.4222 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0175 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 818.7526 |
Predictive Modules for Golden Eagle
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Golden Eagle Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Golden Eagle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Golden Eagle
For every potential investor in Golden, whether a beginner or expert, Golden Eagle's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Golden Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Golden. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Golden Eagle's price trends.Golden Eagle Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Golden Eagle stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Golden Eagle could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Golden Eagle by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Golden Eagle Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Golden Eagle's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Golden Eagle's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Golden Eagle Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Golden Eagle stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Golden Eagle shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Golden Eagle stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Golden Eagle Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0204 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.33) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 727.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 728.33 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 15.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (7.50) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (20.00) |
Golden Eagle Risk Indicators
The analysis of Golden Eagle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Golden Eagle's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting golden stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Variance | 4.22 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Golden Stock
Golden Eagle financial ratios help investors to determine whether Golden Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Golden with respect to the benefits of owning Golden Eagle security.