Smurfit Kappa Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SMFTF Stock | USD 46.98 0.87 1.82% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Smurfit Kappa Group on the next trading day is expected to be 48.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.32. Smurfit Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Smurfit Kappa stock prices and determine the direction of Smurfit Kappa Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Smurfit Kappa's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smurfit Kappa to cross-verify your projections. Smurfit |
Most investors in Smurfit Kappa cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Smurfit Kappa's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Smurfit Kappa's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Smurfit Kappa is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Smurfit Kappa Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Smurfit Kappa Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 18th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Smurfit Kappa Group on the next trading day is expected to be 48.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04, mean absolute percentage error of 1.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Smurfit Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Smurfit Kappa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Smurfit Kappa Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Smurfit Kappa Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Smurfit Kappa's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Smurfit Kappa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 45.97 and 50.88, respectively. We have considered Smurfit Kappa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Smurfit Kappa pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Smurfit Kappa pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5034 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.038 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0236 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 63.3167 |
Predictive Modules for Smurfit Kappa
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smurfit Kappa Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Smurfit Kappa's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Smurfit Kappa
For every potential investor in Smurfit, whether a beginner or expert, Smurfit Kappa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Smurfit Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Smurfit. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Smurfit Kappa's price trends.Smurfit Kappa Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Smurfit Kappa pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Smurfit Kappa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Smurfit Kappa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Smurfit Kappa Group Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Smurfit Kappa's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Smurfit Kappa's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Smurfit Kappa Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Smurfit Kappa pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Smurfit Kappa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Smurfit Kappa pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Smurfit Kappa Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 46.98 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 46.98 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.44) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.87) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 65.22 |
Smurfit Kappa Risk Indicators
The analysis of Smurfit Kappa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Smurfit Kappa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting smurfit pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.66 | |||
| Variance | 7.09 | |||
| Downside Variance | 15.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.34 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.61) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smurfit Kappa to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Complementary Tools for Smurfit Pink Sheet analysis
When running Smurfit Kappa's price analysis, check to measure Smurfit Kappa's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Smurfit Kappa is operating at the current time. Most of Smurfit Kappa's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Smurfit Kappa's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Smurfit Kappa's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Smurfit Kappa to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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