Seneca Foods Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SENEA Stock | USD 58.89 1.57 2.60% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Seneca Foods Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 58.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.56. Seneca Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Seneca Foods stock prices and determine the direction of Seneca Foods Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Seneca Foods' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Seneca Foods' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Seneca Foods' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Seneca Foods fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Seneca Foods to cross-verify your projections. Seneca |
Most investors in Seneca Foods cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Seneca Foods' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Seneca Foods' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Seneca Foods simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Seneca Foods Corp are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Seneca Foods Corp prices get older. Seneca Foods Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Seneca Foods Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 58.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83, mean absolute percentage error of 1.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Seneca Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Seneca Foods' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Seneca Foods Stock Forecast Pattern
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Seneca Foods Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Seneca Foods' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Seneca Foods' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 57.13 and 60.79, respectively. We have considered Seneca Foods' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Seneca Foods stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Seneca Foods stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.3285 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1732 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.826 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0147 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 49.5583 |
Predictive Modules for Seneca Foods
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Seneca Foods Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Seneca Foods' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Seneca Foods
For every potential investor in Seneca, whether a beginner or expert, Seneca Foods' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Seneca Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Seneca. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Seneca Foods' price trends.Seneca Foods Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Seneca Foods stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Seneca Foods could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Seneca Foods by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Seneca Foods Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Seneca Foods' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Seneca Foods' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Seneca Foods Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Seneca Foods stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Seneca Foods shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Seneca Foods stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Seneca Foods Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 58.89 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 58.89 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.79) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.57) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 49.62 |
Seneca Foods Risk Indicators
The analysis of Seneca Foods' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Seneca Foods' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting seneca stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Variance | 3.31 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.68 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.62) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| MSFT | Microsoft | |
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Seneca Foods to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Seneca Foods Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Seneca Foods' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Complementary Tools for Seneca Stock analysis
When running Seneca Foods' price analysis, check to measure Seneca Foods' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Seneca Foods is operating at the current time. Most of Seneca Foods' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Seneca Foods' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Seneca Foods' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Seneca Foods to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Seneca Foods' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Seneca Foods. If investors know Seneca will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Seneca Foods listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.10) | Earnings Share 7.67 | Revenue Per Share 198.997 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) | Return On Assets 0.0327 |
The market value of Seneca Foods Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Seneca that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Seneca Foods' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Seneca Foods' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Seneca Foods' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Seneca Foods' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Seneca Foods' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Seneca Foods is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Seneca Foods' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.