Sinai Cement Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
SCEM Stock | 9.19 1.52 14.19% |
Sinai |
Most investors in Sinai Cement cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Sinai Cement's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Sinai Cement's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Sinai Cement - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Sinai Cement prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Sinai Cement price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Sinai Cement. Sinai Cement Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sinai Cement on the next trading day is expected to be 9.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sinai Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sinai Cement's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sinai Cement Stock Forecast Pattern
Sinai Cement Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sinai Cement's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sinai Cement's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.32 and 15.06, respectively. We have considered Sinai Cement's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sinai Cement stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sinai Cement stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0534 |
MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3124 |
MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0263 |
SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.43 |
Predictive Modules for Sinai Cement
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sinai Cement. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sinai Cement's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Sinai Cement. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Sinai Cement's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Sinai Cement's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Sinai Cement.
Other Forecasting Options for Sinai Cement
For every potential investor in Sinai, whether a beginner or expert, Sinai Cement's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sinai Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sinai. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sinai Cement's price trends.Sinai Cement Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sinai Cement stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sinai Cement could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sinai Cement by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sinai Cement Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sinai Cement's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sinai Cement's current price.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
Sinai Cement Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sinai Cement stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sinai Cement shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sinai Cement stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sinai Cement entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Sinai Cement Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sinai Cement's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sinai Cement's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sinai stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Mean Deviation | 2.88 | |||
Semi Deviation | 3.06 | |||
Standard Deviation | 6.65 | |||
Variance | 44.18 | |||
Downside Variance | 27.3 | |||
Semi Variance | 9.35 | |||
Expected Short fall | (8.89) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
Complementary Tools for Sinai Stock analysis
When running Sinai Cement's price analysis, check to measure Sinai Cement's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sinai Cement is operating at the current time. Most of Sinai Cement's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sinai Cement's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sinai Cement's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sinai Cement to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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