1919 Financial Mutual Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| SBFAX Fund | USD 25.72 0.27 1.04% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of 1919 Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 25.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.80. 1919 Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast 1919 Financial stock prices and determine the direction of 1919 Financial Services's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of 1919 Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 1919 Financial to cross-verify your projections. 1919 |
Most investors in 1919 Financial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the 1919 Financial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets 1919 Financial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
1919 Financial polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for 1919 Financial Services as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. 1919 Financial Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of 1919 Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 25.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 1919 Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 1919 Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
1919 Financial Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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1919 Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting 1919 Financial's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 1919 Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.67 and 26.33, respectively. We have considered 1919 Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 1919 Financial mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 1919 Financial mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6922 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2387 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0092 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.7964 |
Predictive Modules for 1919 Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as 1919 Financial Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of 1919 Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for 1919 Financial
For every potential investor in 1919, whether a beginner or expert, 1919 Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 1919 Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 1919. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 1919 Financial's price trends.1919 Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 1919 Financial mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 1919 Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 1919 Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
1919 Financial Services Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of 1919 Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of 1919 Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
1919 Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 1919 Financial mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 1919 Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 1919 Financial mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify 1919 Financial Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 25.72 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 25.72 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.13) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.27) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 33.16 |
1919 Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of 1919 Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 1919 Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 1919 mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6296 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8829 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8566 | |||
| Variance | 0.7338 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9188 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7796 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.63) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards 1919 Financial in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, 1919 Financial's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from 1919 Financial options trading.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 1919 Financial to cross-verify your projections. Note that the 1919 Financial Services information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other 1919 Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.