Roche Holding OTC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| RHHVF Stock | USD 261.49 0.22 0.08% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Roche Holding AG on the next trading day is expected to be 263.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 177.80. Roche OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Roche Holding stock prices and determine the direction of Roche Holding AG's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Roche Holding's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Roche Holding to cross-verify your projections. Roche |
Most investors in Roche Holding cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Roche Holding's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Roche Holding's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Roche Holding is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Roche Holding AG value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Roche Holding Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 18th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Roche Holding AG on the next trading day is expected to be 263.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.91, mean absolute percentage error of 13.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 177.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Roche OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Roche Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Roche Holding OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
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Roche Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Roche Holding's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Roche Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 262.20 and 265.46, respectively. We have considered Roche Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Roche Holding otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Roche Holding otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.7113 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.9148 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0117 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 177.8032 |
Predictive Modules for Roche Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Roche Holding AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Roche Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Roche Holding
For every potential investor in Roche, whether a beginner or expert, Roche Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Roche OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Roche. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Roche Holding's price trends.View Roche Holding Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Roche Holding AG Technical and Predictive Analytics
The otc stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Roche Holding's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Roche Holding's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Roche Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Roche Holding otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Roche Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Roche Holding otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Roche Holding AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Roche Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Roche Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Roche Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting roche otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Variance | 2.66 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.03 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.34) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Roche Holding to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Roche OTC Stock analysis
When running Roche Holding's price analysis, check to measure Roche Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Roche Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Roche Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Roche Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Roche Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Roche Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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